Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[FarmaZutical]

A quick assessment (is at work) is that this is overall very good results.

It would of course have been nice to see statistically and not only clinically proven efficacy in the 100 mg arm instead of the 200 mg arm because that would make it easier to advance into maybe just one ph3 and not a Ph3A and Ph3B (or a Ph2B which might be necessary for definite dose finding before a Ph3). That would have been red meat for a potential partner and made a potential deal more valuable for CTIX. But as the CEO writes, the trial was not powered to do so.

However, all oral treatments for psoriasis that are underway seem to have problems and I definitely believe the results from this Prurisol trail is enough to secure some sort of partnership for the further advancement into 2 phase 3s and hopefully commercialization. I don't think we will see as monstrous up-fronts as in the recent AB$V / B or RD$ / $NPT deals. As Prurisol has always been the dark horse in the CTIX herd and given the fact that the company needs money to advance Kevetrin and Brillacidin I think the need for an early deal is there, and even though the value would be higher if CTIX advanced Prurisol into a Ph3 I think the company is better off striking a deal now and move on.

This is an old article that I recommend reading to get a very basic
insight to when to make a deal as a SME. It's from another time and economic environment but it's still good.

http://www.campbellalliance.com/articles/Les%20Nouvelles%20-%20Deal%20Timing%20-%20Sept%202010.pdf