Tuesday, May 24, 2016 9:20:27 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/23 2016 EOD
Yesterday I summed things up with { All things considered though, and regardless of the ATM, suspicions and possible short covering, I wouldn't be surprised to see price hang in around this level, or even improve marginally until the next resistance level. } Today satisfied that but my thoughts about today lean me towards we won't get another day.
In aggregate, the conventional TA suggests more upside is available with the only concern being the size of the volume increase, which could suggest either building strength or, conversely, the end of the short up trend we've seen. Another mitigating, albeit less concrete, consideration is my strong belief that the price is being manipulated, easy in a low-volume environment, to allow selling by financiers of the last offering and/or CPST's ATM facility. This does seem supported by the "selling into strength" evidenced by the buy and sell percentages observed today and on prior recent strong rises.
My unconventional stuff is not all that positive. The short percentage got into the low end of normal but the buy percentage at EOD, and even more so intra-day, does not suggest strong buying. The intra-day suggests strong selling and the EOD reading improvements are likely just results of MMs, day traders, ... doing the normal OED clean of short positions and/or positioning for the next day. This EOD behavior is quite common and we often see a buy percentage rise during that time.
For these reasons I'm leery of suggesting more upside. I interpret what's seen, considering both positive and negative indications, as the result of manipulation for the benefit of those that can move the market to their advantage. Adding in that we have six days now in an up trend, close to as long as we've seen recently, and my best guess is near-term weakening will return.
We got a beginning to the day with an open flat and rise, rise, rise until 9:46's $1.54 penetrated known resistance of $1.53 and was rejected and in the next minute moved range back down to $1.48 to start a shallow rise to $1.52 at 10:15 and began $1.50/2 through 10:21 and then $1.51/2. All this, of course, on predominately low/no-volume with infrequent interspersed high-volume minutes. The resistance was challenged again when 11:04-12:41's $1.52/3 began and moved quickly to $1.55 at 11:16 and was again rejected by falling back to $1.52/3 and also 12:00's ~13.2K $1.50/2. But starting with 12:43-:49's bump up to $1.55 again the complexion changed. From then on it had only a few one-minute instances of a drop to $1.52 and traded $1.53/4 through 13:50 and $1.54/5 to the end of the day, closing above the $1.53 resistance (upper red line on the minimal chart). The volume from 12:50 onward was generally much high than during the prior periods and the day end on volume of 253% yesterday's, up ~153%.
Range today was completely above the ascending support/resistance (lower rising orange line) around which we had been vacillating for the last two weeks.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:57 opened the day on a 20,026 buy for $1.49 and 100 more at $1.4999. Then came 9:32's ~2.9K $1.4736/$1.50, 9:35's 375 $$1.4650/60, 9:36's 150 $1.4899, 9:39's 600 $1.4800/$1.48001, 9:40's 5K $1.4792, 9:43's ~18.3K $1.48/$1.50, 9:46's ~20K $1.4950/$1.54 (tested and rejected by known resistance @ $1.53), 9:47's ~8.4K $1.50->$1.48->$1.4899, 9:48's 600 $1.48/9, 9:51's 500 $1.49, 9:53's ~2.9K $1.50, 9:54's 600 $1.51, 9:54's 1.6K $1.51/$1.5162, 9:56's 1.1K $1.5150/$1.52, and 9:57's ~14.5K $1.51->$1.50->$1.49 ended the period.
09:58-11:03, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.50/1, moved to $1.50/2 at 10:15 and $1.51/2 at 10:22. Low volume was interrupted by 10:42's 15K $1.51 and trading moved to more low-volume and fewer no-volume minutes. The period ended on 11:03's 100 $1.52.
11:04-12:41 began very low/no-volume $1.52/3 after 11:04-:05's ~13.1K $1.5150/$1.5212, did 11:14/:17's ~35.2K $1.52/3->$1.54->$1.55->$1.54/5, 11:18-:23's low volume $1.54/5, 11:24-:59's very low/no-volume $1.52/3, and ended the period on 12:41's 2.1K $1.52. The period was interrupted with 12:00's ~13.2K $1.50/2, after eight no-trades minutes.
12:42-13:50, after one no-trades minute, did a quick move up on 12:43-:47's ~19.3K $1.53->$1.54->$1.55 to challenge resistance again. 12:48-:51's ~30.4K $1.54->$1.55->$1.54->$1.53 began mixed-volume $1.52/4 through 13:15 and then went very low/no-volume $1.53/4 through 13:47. 13:48-:50's ~24K $$1.52/4 ended the period.
13:51-15:43 began mixed-volume $1.54/5 on 13:51's 3.2K $1.54->$1.55 and ended the period on 15:43's ~1.6K $1.54/5.
15:44-16:00, after a no-trades minute, began medium/high-volume EOD volatility, in volume but not price, $1.54/5 and ended the period and day on a closing 200 buy for $1.55.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 25 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 188,212, 33.19% of day's volume, with a $1.5250 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 24 larger trades totaling 168,186, 29.66% of day's volume, with a $1.5291 VWAP.
The above occurred on volume up big, both a blessing and a curse in my case as I don't know if it's a sign of building strength or was the sign of ending a trend. Any time we get it moving up 150%+ (250%+ yesterdays) and ~178% of the 10-day average yesterday, ~319K, we have to be wondering.
Checking the chart we can see the lows were riding at and above the ascending green line for five prior days, so we were generally in a short up-trend. Looking at the chart overall we can see that's around the longest we normally get in a trend up before reversing.
On my one-year chart my long-term descending resistance continues below today's close and so confirms the line is not resistance - it likely it just aged out. However, after re-thinking that and combining it with the observed price behavior recently and suggestions of manipulation offered by my TFH, maybe I was too hasty. I think all I can conclude, really, is that price moved above it and has confirmed and it was, at least in the current environment, a weak resistance. With that in mind, it's possible it could act as support sometime in the future.
Thanks to the nice range and close bump up today, the 10-day SMA switched from nearly flat to rising. We'll need another close at $1.53 or higher to remain flat tomorrow. Other than that, we could sink marginally lower over the next nine/ten days and still have a rising 10-day SMA because the tail of the window is dropping lower values.
If the close remains at or below the current $1.55, the 20-day SMA will continue to fall for five days. To reverse that we'd need to see close rising to $1.67/9 for a dew days and $1.57 the fourth day.
The oscillators I watch all had improvement. Williams %R is at maximum overbought while full stochastic and MFI (untrusted by me) are a skosh below overbought. RSI and momentum are above neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3492 and $1.5385 ($1.3636 and $1.5087 yesterday) switched from converging to diverging, indicating greater volatility, and moved the mid-point up a bit. As mentioned over the last few days, and specifically yesterday with { As I've been saying, I expect a break soon. Was today the start of it? Hard to say. Volume rose but ... daily short percentage is back within normal range and buy percentage moved back up to our "normal", which is just below what I believe is needed for sustained ... }.
It looks like today was the break suggested by the Bollingers. The question becomes "can it sustain".
All in, lots of positives today with the only concerns being the volume made too big a move for me to be comfortable and the up trend is about as long as we normally see. Maybe my unconventional stuff will offer something a bit more definitive?
Yesterday I noted { Today's move was accompanied by more favorable short and buy percentages and a volume rise in a reasonable range. Moreover, today was "buy into strength" as intra-day buy percentage held up very well most of the day. }
Today percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting normalcy, and the short percentage is within the lower end of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately, the buy percentage sank further from the range needed for sustainable appreciation, countering yesterday's "buy into strength" and fitting into our other recently seen "sell into strength" scenarios.
The spread narrowed, but is still a bit wider than what I would expect if we were doing a long climb up. At least it was produced by an open lower and ratchet up for the first couple hours and then held high for the rest of the day so the spread is not a huge negative. The "held high" is a concern as the buy percentage never got above the 3x% range (in fact, mostly 35% or lower) 10:15-15:00 and price remaining high in that scenario is highly suspect. The bump into the low 4x% area in the last hour was likely short covering by MMs, day traders, ... A bump to some degree is quite normal near the EOD and is usually how we get to 4x% when "selling into strength" seems to be occurring.
VWAP movement added another positive to our negative trend, giving us now eleven negative moves in the last sixteen readings and five positives.
Yesterday I said { All things considered though, and regardless of the ATM, suspicions and possible short covering, I wouldn't be surprised to see price hang in around this level, or even improve marginally until the next resistance level. } We got to, and hung around the "next resistance level", even closing above it.
Today all in, my unconventional stuff is less positive than the conventional TA would suggest, but not negative in aggregate. Combined with what I observed intra-day, especially the buy percentage, and my concerns about the degree of volume increase discussed above, I have to lean slightly negative here, although I'm not convinced of it. That's because I feel certain that price is being manipulated up, easy in a low-volume environment, for the benefit of $CPST's ATM process and/or the financiers' selling of shares into the market.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Yesterday I summed things up with { All things considered though, and regardless of the ATM, suspicions and possible short covering, I wouldn't be surprised to see price hang in around this level, or even improve marginally until the next resistance level. } Today satisfied that but my thoughts about today lean me towards we won't get another day.
In aggregate, the conventional TA suggests more upside is available with the only concern being the size of the volume increase, which could suggest either building strength or, conversely, the end of the short up trend we've seen. Another mitigating, albeit less concrete, consideration is my strong belief that the price is being manipulated, easy in a low-volume environment, to allow selling by financiers of the last offering and/or CPST's ATM facility. This does seem supported by the "selling into strength" evidenced by the buy and sell percentages observed today and on prior recent strong rises.
My unconventional stuff is not all that positive. The short percentage got into the low end of normal but the buy percentage at EOD, and even more so intra-day, does not suggest strong buying. The intra-day suggests strong selling and the EOD reading improvements are likely just results of MMs, day traders, ... doing the normal OED clean of short positions and/or positioning for the next day. This EOD behavior is quite common and we often see a buy percentage rise during that time.
For these reasons I'm leery of suggesting more upside. I interpret what's seen, considering both positive and negative indications, as the result of manipulation for the benefit of those that can move the market to their advantage. Adding in that we have six days now in an up trend, close to as long as we've seen recently, and my best guess is near-term weakening will return.
We got a beginning to the day with an open flat and rise, rise, rise until 9:46's $1.54 penetrated known resistance of $1.53 and was rejected and in the next minute moved range back down to $1.48 to start a shallow rise to $1.52 at 10:15 and began $1.50/2 through 10:21 and then $1.51/2. All this, of course, on predominately low/no-volume with infrequent interspersed high-volume minutes. The resistance was challenged again when 11:04-12:41's $1.52/3 began and moved quickly to $1.55 at 11:16 and was again rejected by falling back to $1.52/3 and also 12:00's ~13.2K $1.50/2. But starting with 12:43-:49's bump up to $1.55 again the complexion changed. From then on it had only a few one-minute instances of a drop to $1.52 and traded $1.53/4 through 13:50 and $1.54/5 to the end of the day, closing above the $1.53 resistance (upper red line on the minimal chart). The volume from 12:50 onward was generally much high than during the prior periods and the day end on volume of 253% yesterday's, up ~153%.
Range today was completely above the ascending support/resistance (lower rising orange line) around which we had been vacillating for the last two weeks.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:57 opened the day on a 20,026 buy for $1.49 and 100 more at $1.4999. Then came 9:32's ~2.9K $1.4736/$1.50, 9:35's 375 $$1.4650/60, 9:36's 150 $1.4899, 9:39's 600 $1.4800/$1.48001, 9:40's 5K $1.4792, 9:43's ~18.3K $1.48/$1.50, 9:46's ~20K $1.4950/$1.54 (tested and rejected by known resistance @ $1.53), 9:47's ~8.4K $1.50->$1.48->$1.4899, 9:48's 600 $1.48/9, 9:51's 500 $1.49, 9:53's ~2.9K $1.50, 9:54's 600 $1.51, 9:54's 1.6K $1.51/$1.5162, 9:56's 1.1K $1.5150/$1.52, and 9:57's ~14.5K $1.51->$1.50->$1.49 ended the period.
09:58-11:03, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.50/1, moved to $1.50/2 at 10:15 and $1.51/2 at 10:22. Low volume was interrupted by 10:42's 15K $1.51 and trading moved to more low-volume and fewer no-volume minutes. The period ended on 11:03's 100 $1.52.
11:04-12:41 began very low/no-volume $1.52/3 after 11:04-:05's ~13.1K $1.5150/$1.5212, did 11:14/:17's ~35.2K $1.52/3->$1.54->$1.55->$1.54/5, 11:18-:23's low volume $1.54/5, 11:24-:59's very low/no-volume $1.52/3, and ended the period on 12:41's 2.1K $1.52. The period was interrupted with 12:00's ~13.2K $1.50/2, after eight no-trades minutes.
12:42-13:50, after one no-trades minute, did a quick move up on 12:43-:47's ~19.3K $1.53->$1.54->$1.55 to challenge resistance again. 12:48-:51's ~30.4K $1.54->$1.55->$1.54->$1.53 began mixed-volume $1.52/4 through 13:15 and then went very low/no-volume $1.53/4 through 13:47. 13:48-:50's ~24K $$1.52/4 ended the period.
13:51-15:43 began mixed-volume $1.54/5 on 13:51's 3.2K $1.54->$1.55 and ended the period on 15:43's ~1.6K $1.54/5.
15:44-16:00, after a no-trades minute, began medium/high-volume EOD volatility, in volume but not price, $1.54/5 and ended the period and day on a closing 200 buy for $1.55.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 25 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 188,212, 33.19% of day's volume, with a $1.5250 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 24 larger trades totaling 168,186, 29.66% of day's volume, with a $1.5291 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:57 96363 $1.4650 $1.5400 $144,147.67 $1.4959 16.99% 41.37% Incl 09:30 $1.4900 20,026 09:40 $1.4792 5,000
09:46 $1.5000 7,400
11:03 36067 $1.5000 $1.5200 $54,555.72 $1.5126 6.36% 35.40% Incl 10:42 $1.5150 4,500
12:41 86807 $1.5000 $1.5500 $132,707.53 $1.5288 15.31% 34.12% Incl 11:05 $1.5201 5,220 11:14 $1.5300 4,797
12:00 $1.5000 9,278 12:35 $1.5260 5,000
13:50 130393 $1.5200 $1.5500 $199,569.73 $1.5305 23.00% 32.40% Incl 12:51 $1.5300 24,000 13:02 $1.5300 12,255
13:15 $1.5301 6,400 $1.5200 6,600
13:15 $1.5200 5,200 13:48 $1.5300 9,600
15:43 136281 $1.5400 $1.5500 $210,807.16 $1.5469 24.03% 41.93% Incl 14:51 $1.5400 9,000 15:01 $1.5499 5,900
15:05 $1.5499 4,000 15:07 $1.5401 4,600
15:12 $1.5499 5,000 15:28 $1.5401 4,100
16:00 75018 $1.5400 $1.5500 $115,924.80 $1.5453 13.23% 42.75% Incl 15:46 $1.5400 5,000 15:48 $1.5500 6,996
15:54 $1.5435 5,000
15:59 $1.5400 6,540 6,800
See my minimal chart the big item is the punch through the known resistance at $1.53 (upper red line) and a close above it on rising volume. The test comes tomorrow - can it close above it again, and just as important maybe, on rising volume? Since tomorrow is not Friday, there's no reason to consider exceptions to these criteria__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 5.67% 4.64% 3.33% 6.90% 153.13%
Prior -0.70% 1.46% 4.90% 2.11% 70.31%
The above occurred on volume up big, both a blessing and a curse in my case as I don't know if it's a sign of building strength or was the sign of ending a trend. Any time we get it moving up 150%+ (250%+ yesterdays) and ~178% of the 10-day average yesterday, ~319K, we have to be wondering.
Checking the chart we can see the lows were riding at and above the ascending green line for five prior days, so we were generally in a short up-trend. Looking at the chart overall we can see that's around the longest we normally get in a trend up before reversing.
On my one-year chart my long-term descending resistance continues below today's close and so confirms the line is not resistance - it likely it just aged out. However, after re-thinking that and combining it with the observed price behavior recently and suggestions of manipulation offered by my TFH, maybe I was too hasty. I think all I can conclude, really, is that price moved above it and has confirmed and it was, at least in the current environment, a weak resistance. With that in mind, it's possible it could act as support sometime in the future.
Thanks to the nice range and close bump up today, the 10-day SMA switched from nearly flat to rising. We'll need another close at $1.53 or higher to remain flat tomorrow. Other than that, we could sink marginally lower over the next nine/ten days and still have a rising 10-day SMA because the tail of the window is dropping lower values.
If the close remains at or below the current $1.55, the 20-day SMA will continue to fall for five days. To reverse that we'd need to see close rising to $1.67/9 for a dew days and $1.57 the fourth day.
The oscillators I watch all had improvement. Williams %R is at maximum overbought while full stochastic and MFI (untrusted by me) are a skosh below overbought. RSI and momentum are above neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3492 and $1.5385 ($1.3636 and $1.5087 yesterday) switched from converging to diverging, indicating greater volatility, and moved the mid-point up a bit. As mentioned over the last few days, and specifically yesterday with { As I've been saying, I expect a break soon. Was today the start of it? Hard to say. Volume rose but ... daily short percentage is back within normal range and buy percentage moved back up to our "normal", which is just below what I believe is needed for sustained ... }.
It looks like today was the break suggested by the Bollingers. The question becomes "can it sustain".
All in, lots of positives today with the only concerns being the volume made too big a move for me to be comfortable and the up trend is about as long as we normally see. Maybe my unconventional stuff will offer something a bit more definitive?
Yesterday I noted { Today's move was accompanied by more favorable short and buy percentages and a volume rise in a reasonable range. Moreover, today was "buy into strength" as intra-day buy percentage held up very well most of the day. }
Today percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, suggesting normalcy, and the short percentage is within the lower end of my desired range (needs re-check). Unfortunately, the buy percentage sank further from the range needed for sustainable appreciation, countering yesterday's "buy into strength" and fitting into our other recently seen "sell into strength" scenarios.
The spread narrowed, but is still a bit wider than what I would expect if we were doing a long climb up. At least it was produced by an open lower and ratchet up for the first couple hours and then held high for the rest of the day so the spread is not a huge negative. The "held high" is a concern as the buy percentage never got above the 3x% range (in fact, mostly 35% or lower) 10:15-15:00 and price remaining high in that scenario is highly suspect. The bump into the low 4x% area in the last hour was likely short covering by MMs, day traders, ... A bump to some degree is quite normal near the EOD and is usually how we get to 4x% when "selling into strength" seems to be occurring.
VWAP movement added another positive to our negative trend, giving us now eleven negative moves in the last sixteen readings and five positives.
Yesterday I said { All things considered though, and regardless of the ATM, suspicions and possible short covering, I wouldn't be surprised to see price hang in around this level, or even improve marginally until the next resistance level. } We got to, and hung around the "next resistance level", even closing above it.
Today all in, my unconventional stuff is less positive than the conventional TA would suggest, but not negative in aggregate. Combined with what I observed intra-day, especially the buy percentage, and my concerns about the degree of volume increase discussed above, I have to lean slightly negative here, although I'm not convinced of it. That's because I feel certain that price is being manipulated up, easy in a low-volume environment, for the benefit of $CPST's ATM process and/or the financiers' selling of shares into the market.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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