Investor I do not understand your logic on several fronts.
1. You try to equate material sales to estimate printer sales when IMHO you cannot do so because of the variables. You say 250 kg per printer and that equals a certain number of machines. BUt it doesn't. First the amount each machine will use will be determined by time of usage (24 hrs or 8 hrs) stacking or not stacking, efficiency of operations as some manufactures might have more efficient powder usage methods, whether the manufacture makes their own powder and how much is sold to laser printer and for other uses. So production and sales of a certain amount of powder doe not necessarily equate to a certain number of EBM machines sold. RIght??? The variables are a lot more than simply what part is being produced and its material and geometry.
2. You state that per an arcam slide it has 100 systems in production. Did I read that correctly??? Given that arcam had only 19 printers in backlog, and some were for the ge bulk order which are not intended for immediate delivery, are you saying that arcam is producing 80 printers on spec (20 in backlog vs your statement that 100 are in production)?????? First, they don't have capacity for 100 printrs and don't have the sales either. So did I misunderstand your shout or am I missing
something.
I totally agree that the more powder sold the better. But catalysts are not just EBM printers, it includes laser metal printers and non printers as well. Moreover, Rene said on the last cc that APC sells 50% for EBM printers so not sure where the figure 40 EBM 40 Laser and 20% other uses comes from. Not what Rene stated on the last CC per my notes
If you listen to Trader, he keeps shouting for 10 per month but then keeps posting that competitors will kill arcam and the lack of announcements means few printers are being sold. Of course he also posted that 1000s would be sold right after the GE announcement then of course retracted that shout.
Bottom line, I agree with your hopes but your method of getting there is flawed. You cannot tell how much material a printer will use because some may not even use APC powder (other sources or make it themselves) and a lot of APC sales may go to non EBM uses. So simply because powder is produced and sold may have no colleration with EBM printers sold. Also as stated above, there may be wide variations in powder used per printer.
So while I am very bullish on the number of printers Arcam will sell, the mere fact that APC is increasing capacity does not tell us how many printers will be sold. But the lack of PR announcements does not mean low sales either. Look at the 4th quarter when Trader was bemoaning the lack of sales announcements and we had the GE bulk order and 19 unannounced sales.
Myself, I predict a good number, and increasing EBM sales as volume production begins but not necessary the 10 per month or 120 per year that Trader keeps harping on. After all, last year, which was relatively good, had sales a lot less than the 80 predicted.
AI
