Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)

[ogbull]

One of OPEC's very own countries is on the brink of collapse. Over the next several months, we see the situation in Nigeria worsening as oil production will likely remain offline, and Nigerians revolting over the petroleum price hike. Nigeria has both an external threat and an internal threat to deal with. link


The Saudis are in trouble too! How will they fend off social unrest, a declining foreign reserve, and transition the country all at the same time? Unless Saudi begins to aggressively borrow money from abroad, the math simply doesn't work.

Oil revenue still eclipses all other revenue sources. Saudi does not charge a tax on its citizens, and it recently abolished petroleum subsidies which led to protests and riots. Saudi's 2030 plan encompasses taxes being imposed, and this could lead to a major civil unrest. In addition, Saudi plans on attracting foreign investments, while it contemplates on paying its contractors with IOUs.

Not to mention, oil being at $50 is draining down Saudi's foreign reserve. link

Are you long or short oil? The largest cumulative change in positions over the last month by far was that of the Short - Spec traders. They reduced their short positions (buying) by about 127,000 contracts, which is equivalent 127 million barrels. There is little chance Nigeria will solve their civil war. [url][/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]


Here's another point: Maybe Canada can get it oil sands back in production is 3 weeks. But in that time, a major disruption could pop up anywhere else in the world.