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Re: tmorr55 post# 7901

Monday, 05/16/2016 7:23:25 AM

Monday, May 16, 2016 7:23:25 AM

Post# of 29820
XIV for gains; UVXY for insurance, Hedge, Balance.*

While the SVXY or XIV tends to go up, and the UVXY or TVIX tend to go down, we need both of them. The question is how to balance between them.*

I am trying to buy small amounts of UVXY, to average down, as a way of holding at least some at all times.*

I was falling into a trap of reacting in panic to some comment, and I want to avoid that. While holding UVXY someone says, "It's going to just keep going down, so you should sell it." Then I sell it and it starts going up.*

While not holding any UVXY someone says, "It's going to just keep going up, so you should buy it," so I start buying and it goes down.*

While my recent trades in UVYX are not the best, this is on a very small scale, and it beats buying high and selling low.*

These types of shares did not yet exist during the last really big market drop, so it's not clear how they would respond.*

Some say that XIV and SVXY could "go to zero," or at least lose 95% of their value in a crash. In that case, the UVXY and TVIX should go up high enough to compensate for the loss.*

I believe that I will someday find a good algorithm for see-sawing between the two types, between volatility and inverse-volatility. I would need more money in the trading account to make it work, but when I get more in the account I end up doing the wrong thing with it. So, adding more to the account makes it both easier to gain and easier to lose.*

It's always a struggle to figure out the best course of action, and what is best for one account size is not the best for another account size.*

I'm still just experimenting, and I expect to make mistakes.*

A small gain is better than a big loss.*