Monday, May 09, 2016 12:08:39 PM
One can then immediately see what leverage Avid III would bring if, as reported by bfiest from an IR conversation, would indeed by 3x current capacity.
The demand will be HUGE the coming years. Only the oncology market moving away from Chemo towards I-O will increase the demand for Biologics, produced in the way Avid produces them and cGMP compliant, enormously.
Furthermore the turn-around time will be critically important. The re-usuable reactors are therefore an important investment.
Furthermore Avid has value 'embedded' in the form of know-how (potential consultancy) because they HAVE BUILD and CAN PROVE that they can set-up such manufacturing facility for a FRACTION of the price that it costs normally (see Annual or Q/CC for statement).
Last but not least, in this Biologics market most players (research facilities) will NOT or NO LONGER be able to make the investments for their small scale needs. Large volume facilities will NOT schedule them in between two batches of say Opdivo (to expensive to switch). Avid however can do it EFFORTLESS. So they will capture those customers and the last customer overview already shows how the impact of large customers such as HALO starts to decrease in percentage.
All that goes in that evaluation you are asking for and Avid, given the above, will very probably not be sold at the traditional turn-over/profit multipliers. Its strategic value is HIGHER NOW because the demand is there and the supply can't follow (specifically for Biologics). That of course might change over time as more and more investments in comparable facilities will be made.
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals the Microsoft of Biotechnology! All In My Opinion. I am not advising anything, nor accusing anyone.
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