Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

hoping for a break even QTR or better within a year

If the US $ continues it's current trajectory one of our formerly strong headwinds turns into a tailwind.

Notice we've already had a bearish cross of the 50/200-day SMAs.

Near the upper left change the "Daily" to "Weekly" and the potential distance down is much more dramatic.

For currencies, what you see are huge moves.

If the Fed continues to hold off on rate increases and the U.S. GDP, employment, wage gains, ... continue to be anemic I could see us getting easily into the $80s again.

$USD U.S. Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) - ICE

One potential new headwind though - the U.S. has started exporting LNG. With other countries paying prices indexed to the energy content of oil, US $10.xx - $12.xx(?) per MM BTUs, our NG producers have reason to maximize exports and that should start the U.S. paid prices rising. This would reduce the attractiveness of Cappies in the U.S.

Don't know how long it will take, or even for sure if, the price increases will happen. New liquifaction plants take years and billions of dollars to build. Further, with oil prices where they are globally ATM the price of LNG in those foreign markets should be dropping too, reducing the attractiveness, to some degree, of exporting by our U.S.-based producers and the attractiveness of constructing additional liquifaction and export terminals. Not to mention the oil/gas companies are in desperate straights regarding funds.

Oil bankruptcy wave nears size of telecom bust

With the price of LNG potentially dropping along with the price of oil in foreign markets, that erstwhile potential foreign markets headwind again becomes a tailwind for foreign markets as (L)NG prices fall with oil prices.

Most pundits I hear are looking for $50-$60 oil prices by EOY, with some suggesting a retreat to the low-$30 first. This suggests that the foreign (L)NG prices will remain at historically lower levels that typically seen in the past.

All in, if management can actually execute well, cease feeding at the trough of new share issuance to support bloated salaries, actually get the margin gains, via actual cost reductions, ... They should be able to start seeing increased sales somewhere down the road.

I have my doubts, based on historical behavior though. One thing that just came to mind was the commitment by our distributors to add 100 new reps over the year. But in the recent presentations I've posted there's been no change in the distributor "body count". So this goal was either "fluff" or the distributors are loathe to add while sales are so low - a catch-22 I guess. Need more reps to increase sales but first need to see strong potential for more sales to justify adding reps.

MHO,
Bill