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Re: mackfish post# 3906

Friday, 05/06/2016 8:20:48 AM

Friday, May 06, 2016 8:20:48 AM

Post# of 4188
According to one report, BECC is selling 1% interests in a $3.5 million well for $80,000. You might think direct investors are paying $8 million a well, but BECC is carried for 25%. That means investors are paying $10.7 million per well. BECC gets $3.6 million a year in administrative fees to administer who knows what, but Patriot has only pushed a handful of wells and they have been basically the same ones for a year or so. A barn-burner will hardly make any money for the direct investors at any reasonable price under those terms.

My theory is that sort of promote on wells is not sustainable. It works for a short time during the excessive exuberance of a price spike, but fails when prices are dropping or low. While not a Ponzi scheme, it requires the same sort of expanding number of virgin investors and those are only available during the feeding frenzy of a boom.

While there is no evidence of what BECC's finances might be like, except, of course, the mounting judgments against the company, I strongly suspect Patriot is not able to make its obligation to BECC. In a word, it's over.

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