I know there are hidden agendas in most of them, but the fundamentals remain. Barring any major long term event effecting supply or demand (note there are plenty of short term ones with the most recent being the Ft. McMurray wildfires), oil will have a hard time reaching $50 and even harder pressed to stay there in 2016 if the Saudis continue on with their strategy. Regardless what people say, the Saudis still control the oil market. It is proven with certainty that they have about 400K bbls/day short term capacity they can enter with into the market making them a 10.7 MM bbls producer and they'll use the excuse that its for domestic needs. The Saudi's produced 10.3 last month and peaked at 10.6 in June of last year. Who knows what else they have up their sleeve in terms of additional capacity. They still want low oil prices to knock out the small US players and it continues to work. 2 more announced late last week and many on the cusp like SDOC. It's also a known fact Iran can and will continue to increase, but they are indeed limited in infrastructure and will max out soon. Russia's mostly an unknown, but a major constant producer, desires higher prices, but can't afford to decrease production.
Wait until the gulf oil major projects that started producing last year start coming into play with higher production rates in 2016 (Stone Energy-operated Cardamom Deep and Cardona projects, Chevron-operated Jack/St. Malo fields, Murphy Oil-operated Dalmatian, and Hess-operated Tubular Bell to name just a few).
I'm all for higher oil prices, but I'm also a realist and base my opinions and investments on a lot of different channels of market information. I have a better picture than most, especially those on these chat boards.
