Hi Dejgaard, Dick
IMO there are a few factors here at play that they do not jive.
One is the weak dollar and the other one is the price of oil.
The weak dollar is good in one way and that is "exports". Here is the conflict though, exports with expensive oil and weak dollar is contradictory. Industry (whatever is left of it) needs oil to produce in order to export, not only the oil is expensive as it is almost $29 per barrel but on top of that the dollar is weak which means that one dollar buys less oil now. That brings another fear into the picture and the fear is the possibility of selling for less $ than it takes to produce.
That is deflation and let's not get into this story (crash etc).
Let's not forget that the Nasdaq at 6000 was when the oil was $8.00 per barrel. So the question is what the bottom would be?
I was one of the pessimists if anybody remembers, but if somebody told me Nasdaq at 1300 I would laugh as loud as I could.
Let's get back to the weak dollar, which IMO is one of the biggest players right now although i have not heard any analyst making a strong case for it. When a country has a trade deficit of $450 b and that is growing exponentially there is a big problem at hand because that exponent now from squre goes into cube etc.
Weak dollar is good when you are on the plus side on the trade. Weak dollar also is good for the un/employment index,
weak dollar more production more jobs but here is another thing that does not jive, the unemloyment is on the rise.
My oppinion is that whatever is going to happen in the markets/economy can not possibly be predicted right now and for at least another year so be cautious.
Harry
AI
