TR- McGann has the world wide ETD TAM, as it exists today, pegged to about 800M over 3 years. You can extrapolate the ISC share as you like, but as of today, I say: 66%X800M=528M or about 176M/yr.
Let me use your meager and somewhat weak multiple of 2.2 on that forward rev. rate to get an operating $ 387M EV just for the near term business. Add the NOL, add the IP and add the new product outcomes out of the IP...come on, tell me how you get anything under $400M fully valued????????
Look, not to say you do NOT have a valid point of view, because you do. However, you have to give McGann credit. He is not a noobie and he is not minimally exceptional.
Further,the Sundance to his Butch might have the best P.O.V. on the screening industry in the entire world. You have to place some odds on him making his options good and then some. I know, you think- weak point. Human nature is very strong and when its very very smart and highly motivated-- well lets just say, it deserves a fair bet.
Lastly, lets say nobody steps up with MORE than $400M for the entire enterprise...I will guess they step up with something. That gets far more complicated but NO WAY does the screening world walk past the ETD leader and expect to continue THEIR business in the face of the BUFFED UP/ENHANCED Smiths. NONE. NADA. ZILCHO. I could go on...
AI
