GDP in the first half has been disappointing, consistently
below consensus estimates, with Q1 & Q2 GDP numbers being
lowered with reach revision. We'll be lucky to see 2% GDP
growth for the first half. Consensus estimates are for 3.5%
to 4% 2nd half GDP growth projected by many economists. If the
economy was going to end up growing that much more in the 2nd
half, then there should already be a number of signs of
expansion. Manufacturing continues to shrink, unemployment
continues to grow, global semi growth estimates have been
slashed & most noteworthy companies are only cautiously
guiding estimates in line or slightly uo going forward. Quite
a few are cutting forward estimates.
Also,I would expect to see a few bell weather companies cite,
at a minimum, improved visibility. I would not expect so many
bell weather companies to consistently cite no upswing in IT
spending, no growth projected for Cap Ex spending & no signs
of an economic recovery yet.
It seems to me that the market has priced in 3.5% - 4% 2nd
half GDP growth, perhaps quite a bit more. Valuations are
once again into nose bleed territory. The economy better start
expanding to bring these valuations back into the stratosphere
soon or equities prices will have to get them there.
JMHO
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