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Re: Kaseymoe post# 203

Wednesday, 04/20/2016 6:40:15 AM

Wednesday, April 20, 2016 6:40:15 AM

Post# of 264
I think the tagline they use repeatedly is that they will be the largest primary scandium mine in the world, so Niocorp isn't even in the running.

Although Nio's scandium is small tonnage relative to their other ops it is a large % of their expected income. I think niobium prices have fallen a lot lately so they will hype their scandium even though it isn't correlated to their niobium geology. Just my quick BoE shows about 225m of niobium and ~200m in scandium. So that is almost 1:1 with the company's namesake.

CLQ and SCY are nearly infinitely scaleable primary scandium mines with giant, super high grade deposits at surface with low development cap ex. Nio has large capex, much lower grades, and a bunch of other hurdles to overcome so it is a matter of ease. SCY and CLQ can produce infinite scandium easily while Niocorp's scandium hopes depend on a much more complex thesis and geology. Nio might even end up the big winner depending on how successful they are at cracking the geology and mining scandium (and potentially avoiding lawsuits). How they operate in an environment of say low Nb high scandium prices would be interesting. A domestic supply for scandium in the US would be critical for defense and advanced industry and there is more than enough demand for all the first movers to produce until their hearts are content. In twenty years there will probably be operating scandium mines on most continents, but like with any mineral the highest grade deposits in the best areas will be exploited first.

Nio might even be able to bill themselves as a zero/low cost producer which is always a huge marketing boon. If scandium pays for the niobium or vice versa. I don't know how this story will end and who will be crowned the ultimate victor but the future is definitely bright for those first few companies to produce at a profit and supply a long sought after commodity to the market.