Relypsa Inc (RLYP)

[H2R]

And a negative outlook from SA's George Rho (Whom I do like actually)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3965876-avoid-relypsa

The main point is that in the next couple of years, the revenue will be low and that the projection past that is more of an art. I'm more optimistic, but I thought this would be worth sharing here too.

Furthermore, George Rho does not give credence to an upcoming BO.

The Company's One (and only) Product

Veltassa was approved by the FDA on October 21, 2015, making it the first new medicine approved for the treatment of hyperkalemia, or elevated blood potassium levels, in more than 50 years. Made in powder form consisting of smooth, spherical beads, the potassium binder is mixed with water and taken once-a-day with food. The new medicine is not absorbed and acts within the gastrointestinal tract, binding to potassium in exchange for calcium, primarily in the colon. The potassium is then excreted from the body through the normal excretion process.

Veltassa is not be used as an emergency treatment for life-threatening hyperkalemia, though, because of its delayed onset of action. Very important, too, the prescribing information for Veltassa includes a Boxed Warning that the drug binds to many other orally administered medications, which could decrease their absorption and reduce their effectiveness. As such, the instructions call for other oral medications to be administered at least 6 hours before or 6 hours after Veltassa. Doctors are to choose between Veltassa and the other oral medication if adequate dosing separation is not possible.

As noted above, Veltassa was launched late last December. In the out-patient setting, it's provided to patients as a 30-day supply, consisting of 30 single-use packets. The wholesale acquisition cost is $595 and this price is the same for each of the three dosage strengths. The wholesale acquisition cost for hospitals is $119 for a pack holding four single-use packets of the 8.4 g dose.

Wall Street's consensus mean revenue estimate for 2016 is $39.4 million, derived from 12 data points, which range from a low of $23.6 million and a high of $66.5 million. The consensus figure for 2017 is $86.1 million, with a low and high of $27.6 million and $127.6 million, respectively. Wall Street's bottom-line expectations also vary greatly for both years. Significantly, though, not a single analyst - out of 12 for 2016 and 14 for 2017 - expects Relypsa to be profitable in either year. The consensus is for losses of $5.23 a share this year and $3.82 next year.