SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Belek]

market overlooking earnings for now but soon enough it'll BITE hard..

from Bottarelli research

Alcoa (AA – NYSE)

By Bottarelli Research
Published Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Alcoa AA – NYSE’s quarterly report is the semi-official starting gun for earnings season, so we thought it would be interesting to unpack the blue chip’s release and technical chart.

You might see some headlines touting AA’s “250% earnings beat.” As usual, this is a cheap fiction Wall Street created by lowering the bar just ahead of the announcement. AA’s actual numbers are really rather ugly.

AA’s posted revenue of $4.9 billion is a -5.4% sequential quarterly decline, a -15% quarterly decline year-over-year, and a -5.77% miss for the analysts. EPS of $0.07 after adjusting for special items is indeed a “250%” improvement over the analysts’ call for $0.02. It’s even a 75% improvement sequentially. But this is a seasonal business, so most honest analysts look to the year-over-year comparisons. And in this case, we’re looking at a -75% quarterly drop-off compared to the first quarter of 2015.

The best spin AA has managed to muster? They are cutting another 2,000 workers to reflect “continuing weakness in aluminum pricing.”

AA back to $6 by summer?