SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[hasben]

Good post. I just don't see the market giving up much ground on its quest to new highs. I know it is illogical to think SPY 214 is in the cards but nothing surprises me anymore. As I pissed away 1600% profits, I learned to get on both sides of the fence as one will green faster than the other. I could see a long legged DOJI coming out in the monthly and pessimistic financials and data could be the dagger for a May Jeronimo, but as the flowers bloom and people start their summer travels letting loose of those winter savings, the market could overlook Q2 expectations and look to Q3 for economic relief. I think everyone wants a sell off. Bulls know this has gone on too long and even they want to average down after weeks of profit taking. Bears are still sweating but confident in what they're seeing as is why I believe the $1T in short interest haunts the market.

I highlighted the March 2015 candle that I think could play out. I think a set up like that would be the only way bulls could push to all time highs. Get it back to Daily OS like you said while sucking in retail bears with a break below the 9ema and using their liquidity to propel the market higher while increasing the pain on the perma-bear... I have to keep reminding myself not much has changed between 2015 and 2016. All the stimulus is in play and talking heads are still on the job and they're not signaling Armageddon just the usual mixed signals and backwards talk through their necks.