That wasn't a big surprise to me that GDX didn't fill the gap today. The 1/4 position buy I made was more so to flip in coming days, not so much to sell today. Today from the start I could tell miners would shine and I doubted it would wear off today. Maybe I get paid tomorrow or Monday.
What I do know is that the gap will fill eventually, they always do. GDX actually has several gap ups to fill. I expect the one today to fill within a few days. Then there is another at around $17 and I think that one will fill in 4-8 weeks. Then there is another gap to fill at about $15 and a half and then another one at about $13 and a half. Now those 2 in the $13 and $15 areas are going to take awhile to fill. Anyone with experience knows gaps fill 99% of the time. It could take 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year but they always fill. This is one of the reasons I like this trade and feel pretty comfortable and keep being willing to re-enter. Right now 4 gap ups in the GDX chart. Now it might be possible that this is the 1% time a gap doesn't fill. It is possible, it does happen but it is rare. GDX has 4 gaps though. No way all 4 gaps don't fill. No way that only 1 gap fills. Highly unlikely 3 gaps don't fill.
Gap downs I'd say fill about 80% of the time but if you take out the OTC market and micro and mini caps with the toxic warrants and notes and take out the bios that don't pass phase 3 or whatever type stuff then gap downs fill 99% of the time. Gap ups fill 99% of the time and the few times the don't are usually situations where company X looks to be almost bankrupt or something and sits at 20 cents but then a rabbit gets pulled out of the hat or there is some abnormal circumstance or whatever and then that company X stock jumps and runs from that point and never fills that gap from the first jump off point. For instance there were a bunch that did that in early 2009 when everyone thought everything was going bankrupt. Things like that.
In other words I am 100% sure that the gap today fills eventually. I am 100% sure the gap at 17 fills eventually. I am pretty confident that the gap at 15 whatever fills down the road. The gap at 13 whatever, that might stay and be the 1% exception to gaps always filling. No way all 4 don't fill and no way only 1 fills so at minimum I'd expect GDX to fall back down to that 17 area whenever it finally corrects to at least knock out 2 out of the 4 gaps in the chart.
I have seen a gap in a chart not fill before but it is very rare (especially a gap up). Most in a single ticker chart I have seen that didn't fill were 2. GDX and many miners have 4 gaps. No way at least two don't fill IMO and probably 3. It could take quite awhile though. I've seen gaps take a long while to fill on some occasions. Sometimes a few months and even a year or more I have seen.
Knowledge + risk taking = prosperity
