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Re: reaper247 post# 3816

Saturday, 04/02/2016 10:46:43 AM

Saturday, April 02, 2016 10:46:43 AM

Post# of 4188
Here is a plot of the production from the Parramore lease. I wish I could say I knew why the later wells seem poorer than the first, but I don't know. I could speculate that they drilled the best location first or that depletion from offsets was a factor, but that is just speculation. Notice that the gas-oil-ratio is going up with the later wells. That, with other info I don't have, might mean something.


One thing I can see is that there is a pattern of behavior to the wells. Now, if I look at 20 or thirty wells and they behave similarly, I can infer that the future wells might behave similarly. Would I be certain? No, but more so if we are talking about a group of wells rather than one. I can, however, assume that the Parramore lease was not curtailed during the some of the highest oil prices ever and yet the lease lost money overall. (yes, I am still aware of the $140 spike.)

This helps us understand how BECC wells might perform and why CW might farmout the acreage. That being said, the certainty is somewhere above no clue and somewhere below absolute.


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