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Thursday, July 20, 2006 5:12:36 PM
I just reposted my calcs as I made some mistakes. Will also do the calc for 10% and 25% increase just for the heck of it and to get an easier read when the numbers are published. The slight decrease in sub growth during Q1 should be in line with the post x-mas season.
I agree with you that it's all perception and people are just too disappointed that the quick buck earned did not happen (again) and the reality of a slow growth (but healthy) has kicked in. The dilution necessary to maintain good customer service will occur and dampen pps increases more but I also think that it is a good sign that the OS increases lately have been moderate despite the opening of several DCs which undoubtedly cost quite a bit of money. Another thing to keep an eye open for besides revenue is, of course, the associated cost of revenue with the new DCs online (during Q2). If the past is any indication the cost should increase less than the revenue which would mean better margin.
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