I forgot about another angle that I should mention here, Qui...
Let's say you had gone long on AU at just the right time. Would you have held the position long term not knowing how far up it was going to go or would you have cut and run with some profit and started looking for short positions again a bit higher up? I can almost guarantee it wouldn't have made any real difference in where you are now on the trade...that's human nature and is the downfall of most retail traders.
Hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy to say what we would have done or should have done. But being in the trade in real time not knowing for sure which way it's going to go is very different both in terms of risk and the "itchy trigger finger syndrome" angle.
I doubt that many of us have the fortitude to take a trade and have it run in our favor for days or weeks when we're in the green on a good trade, myself included. I may have long term targets on certain trades but, unfortunately, I seldom hold for the actual target on the longer time frames because I get seduced by the profits on the screen at the moment. That's one of the weaknesses I still struggle with.
If AU starts dropping hard for folks that are short and they get out with good profits, I can almost guarantee you they're going to start looking for positions to go long instead, which would be contrary to the larger trend. That's the way most folks are wired. Once they book profits on a trade, they're automatically looking to go the other way on the same pair.
On pairs like USD/DKK, there really isn't an ideal entry unless you're a rare phenomenon at picking out tops and bottoms. If you want a trade to run in your favor for days or weeks, you're going to have to play the large time frames and expect to be underwater for a while before it runs in your favor. And right now, the large time frames are giving you fits, most likely because it's not a good fit for your trading personality. So your expectation is unrealistic.
Find what works for you and is comfortable for you both in terms of risk and wait time....that's the only real solution. Until you do, frustration will continue to haunt you.
Moving averages, trendlines, fibs, support and resistance...they're all useless without the discipline required that typically takes a long time to develop.
Food for thought...
