Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)

[LouisDesyjr]

It is an opinion? Not really.

It is a conclusion based upon the facts.

The facts all show and point to a chapter 11 filing on or before the opening of the market on April 15, 2016. Unless something incredible happens, like the price of coal skyrocketing in spite of a number of other companies in bankruptcy or on the verge of bankruptcy, BTU is dead.

On or before April 15, 2016; it will become a fact.

It is clear based on the facts so far, the 'going concern' language in the 10K report, the drawing down of the remainder of the credit line, the missed interest payments on March 15, 2016, and the 30 day grace period; that BTU will have to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy prior to the opening of the market on April 15, 2016.

BTU may not even make it to April 15, 2016 because of the requirements on or before April 1, 2016 that it would be required to post additional collateral or be in default on some contracts that it can't or won't post.

A few months ago I thought that BTU might 'weather the storm' and make it, but after the 10K report came out, they drew down the remainder of the credit line, couldn't sell the mine for sale, and missed the interest payments, it is clear that BTU is not going to make it.

I had initially bought June 2016 put options because I have expected they would make it at least to near the end of the 2nd quarter but was wrong about the amount of time it will take.

Louis J. Desy Jr.

Disclosure: I own put options.