To predict the share price we first estimate the earning.
On slide 5 in the latest GALE presentation the market for Neuvax is projected to be $ 7.5 billions. Given the next to nothing cost of manufacturing the peptides (been there done that), you can take the sale as the profit. So if E is 7.5 billions, what is P at Amgen's PE of 16 ? With 182 millions shares outstanding that means a P of $ 660 a share. A PE of 10 would reduce it down to $ 412 a share. That is just Neuvax alone. I had previously argued a P of $240 for GALE 301 base on 162 millions shares outstanding and a PE of 10. So in 2019 when both drugs are marketed, a share price of $ 650 is possible. Discount backward at 50% a year for 3 years put the sp at $ 81 this year.
Of course everyone can make their own assumption and trade accordingly. I won't sell below $ 81 this year. In fact I will hold for quite a while to let the company mature.
Average recurrence rate is 20%. With > 700 patients enrolled and we still yet to see the 70th event, the recurrence of the control arm alone can account for the observed rate. Thus the probablity Neuvax achieves 100% is very high. At 90-100% , I just don't see how the FDA can keep a straight face and ask GALE to go to completion.
