Tuesday, February 16, 2016 1:54:35 PM
Both CP and trader seam to have reasonable models. But if they apply them to both arms them the first look would have been many months ago. And that is the conundrum.
See the chart below. According to my model, 1st look would have happened for a Bavi MOS of 13MOS (beginning of January), 15MOS (2nd half of January) and 17MOS might have happened last week.... But for MOS greater than them it should not have happened yet… and don’t forget it may take 1 month(?) for PPHM to acknowledge (find out) it. First, the Hospital has to find out and then inform PPHM or the Control Entity
Chart comes from the table below. Events are for both arms. Placebo Arm like Herbst et all.
17 % Droppedouts taken into account like in Opdivo trial, though they didn’t show up in the trial til after 15 months enrolled...
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