Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CLVLY)

[FarmaZutical]

Courtesy of Seeva222 the implant price might be as high as $35k.

That's significantly higher than what I expected. Per the 2014 company presentation management compared EPP to Hemophilia which costs app. $50k per year per patient. Therefore, I was expecting $15k per implant which would be $45k per year assuming a yearly average of 3 implants.

$35k per implant would be $70k at an average of 2 implants just to be conservative.

The company sets EPP prevalence at 1/140.000 which would bring the number of European EPP suffers up to app. 4500.

The company is launching Scenesse in the 17 key European countries with porphyria centers which means that the patient population is very well known. Let's assume that the 17 centers have an approximate total patient population of 3000 patients. It's totally reasonable to then assume that Clinuvel will have 1000 patients implanted in 2016.

1000 implants X $35k = 35.000.000.
EPS = 0.77 X a conservative ratio of 20 = $15.5 per share.

I do not know the source and I therefore don't know if $35k per implant will be the actual price.
But even at $15k per implant we should be a $5 today. Conservatively.

GLTA