Insmterry,
Maybe, but I don't see much chance for a merger. I don't see Insmed needing to reliquish their own manufacturing or marketing of Iplex. There is so much antagonism between the 2 management teams (INSM vs TRCA) that I don't think they could learn to play nicely together, even with one or the other CEO/COO/Head of marketing fired downstream to "unify" the organizations.
If you're thinking settlement/licensing, I can see that. If I were Insmed and learned that DNA was seriously interested the anti-cancer uses of BP3, I'd use that big time to influence TRCA to go away - at least cool down the lawsuits - and license the heck out of BP3 to DNA (or BMS or whoever that has a really big oncology franchise).
Insmed is not an oncology company, but I agree the BP3 uses do have a lot of licensing value. And the oncology prospects probably are a bit more exciting than extreme subsets of diabetes, because FDA is likely to be very conservative in defining the diabetes subpopulation they would allow.
Iplex would clearly could work as an insulin adjunct in some subpopulation - that's one of the things the IGF/IGFBP3 complex normally does in the human body. But SIR is currently estimated at ~2,000 US patients - that's too small to develop a whole NDA around. FDA would have to agree to a definition for a highly insulin resistant target subpopulation of at least a few 10's of thousands to make the ROI for Insmed start to look worth the cost of the clinicals. As we've discussed before (don't need to go into it again) Iplex is also just too expensive to become a major diabetes market player. So Insmed's decision about SIR or similar diabetes subpopulation marketing is a tough one.
The preliminary evidence for BP3 in oncology is still sketchy, although promising. So I just don't know how much value Insmed can get for BP3 out-licensing at this point. It's a bit early to know how real the anti-tumor efficacy of BP3 in humans is, and therefore how to get fair value out of it commercially.
There's no denying, getting a nice up front payment from DNA and downstream revenues out of BP3 for oncology, and maybe getting to cut the legs out from under TRCA's little Increlex court challenge by working with DNA, would be sweet. And a good deal for both Insmed & DNA. We'll have to see.
