Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

Zachs 2016 Numbers

Zach’s estimate is $19.1 million in revenue, consisting of a $15.0 million milestone from Braeburn upon FDA approval of probuphine for opioid addiction, and $4.1 in royalty income from Braeburn for probuphine sales.

Titan receives a tiered royalty from the “mid-teens to the low twenties”, so my conservative assumption is the initial royalty percentage equals 15%. So a royalty of $4.1 million means about $27 million in sales in 2016. The numbers I have seen indicate a 6 month treatment of probuphine will sell for about $2,200, which means Zachs believes around 12,272 people will buy probuphine in 2016.

I have also seen (but not confirmed) that Braeburn wants to train 1,500 doctors to administer probuphine. Assuming product launch on July 1, 2016, that would mean each trained doctor would average about 8.18 probuphine procedures over six months, or about 1.36 per month.
Zachs is not factoring in upfront license payments that would be part of outlicensing probuphine to EU countries or elsewhere. I think that will happen, and add about $5 million in revenue.

So total 2016 revenue should be about $24.1 million, with expenses at $10.1 million (the Phase I for ropinrole won’t cost much), for profit of $14 million, which translates to an EPS of $0.66 assuming 21 million shares outstanding.

And yes, there may be a secondary offering, but let’s remember we are a Nasdaq company now. Nasdaq rules prevent over 20% of outstanding shares being issued without shareholder approval. And, although we might be diluted up to 20%, chances are it will bring in at least over $30 million which will shore up the balance sheet and bring more institutional interest.