Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[tradero]

Ok ChB, just for the sake of keeping a nice chat alive, these are the 1st look-in projections updated with the latest info.

For a 9.9 MOS Doce-Placebo Arm. Now you can take your pick for the number of events needed for the 1st look-in. The chart shows for a 152 events 1st Look-in


And it goes from beginning of February (13MOS Bavi) to mid March (17MOS Bavi) (BTW, I also believe there might be 1 month gap from the events happening - to PPHM acknowledging them, so 1st look-in might have happened though not yet acknowledged). The model takes into account dropped-outs… a 17% censored patients starting from the 15th month and evenly distributed onward. Otherwise, if censorship would not have been considered 1st look-in should have already happened (according to this model)

I should add that while I think that the “eventing” distribution chosen for the Placebo Arm may not differ much from reality, I am not sure about the “eventing” distribution assumed for the different cases for the Bavi Arm (13MOS, 15MOS & 17MOS). The Median for those cases correspond to the label but the month to month eventings have been chosen trying to resemble the curve from Herbst et all but I know that this is no guarantee of getting a precise projection. And the higher the MOS the harder it is to tune in the results.

But coming back to Sunstar’s comments about a 20MOS for Bavi… I find very possible that right now the number of events from the Placebo Arm are double than Bavi’s, which may indicate a rather high MOS.
I said I just find it possible, I am not betting my farm that I am correct… I hope nobody makes any buying decision on my pure speculation Please!.