S&P 500 Index (SP500)

[DiscoverGold]

Jeffrey Saut: The call for this week

* February 8, 2016

Last week a couple of new boogiemen arrived on the scene when Deutsche Bank shares (DB/$16.89) fell below their 2008 lows, fostering fears of a banking implosion; and Venezuela, as the Financial Times wrote, “It Could Be Too Late to Avoid Catastrophe in Venezuela.” Whatever the reason, something still feels “out of balance in the universe,” a phrase we have been repeating for many weeks. That said, we have now had one 90% Downside Day (2-2-16) and two 90% Upside Days (January 26 and 29 when 90% of total volume traded came in on the upside) reinforcing our belief that the selling stampede ended at session 21 on 1-28-16 with a “print low” for the SPX at about 1872. That intraday low has been tested twice since then. First on February 3rd and again last Friday. So far the 1872 level has contained the declines. If that level “falls,” however, it would suggest a full downside retest of the January lows between 1810 and 1820. Also if that happens, it would extend the “selling stampede,” making today session 28. As often stated, “A few stampedes have lasted 25 – 30 sessions, but it is very rare to see one go for more than 30 days.” And this morning the stampede continues, despite the Broncos’ win, as crude oil slides (-2.5%), North Korea launches ICBMs, China’s FX reserves fall to 2012 levels, Russian firepower helps Syrian forces edge toward Turkey boarder, and the U.K. considers leaving the EU; What a Wonderful World (

). And that’s the way it is at session 28 in what is turning into a very long “selling stampede!” It is also why sometimes you do need to do something stupid to manage the risk and to NEVER try and catch a falling knife. We need three or more consecutive positive sessions before the “all clear” bell is sounded . . .

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• George.

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