National Bank of Greece ADR (fka NBGGY)

[fourdueces]

promised myself that I wouldn't invest another penny nor lose another penny in 2016 in any Greek Stocks. But I'm beginning to look a lot closer at actually investing again in this toxic waste zone. It looks as if the refugee problem might be ending. If and only if , Turkey and UAE troops start a ground operation inside Syria. Those causing those boarding states to provide shelter and temp housing under war laws. Along with Greek officials comments that Turkey is now a safe third country for refugees those allowing them to turn away refugees under international law. The ground operation all looks like a lock in developments in the last 48hrs. As for the internal circus inside Greece itself. It looks like all but certain that the IMF will provide dept relief if they can push the pension reform thru. Now with the weekends protest you might think I'm crazy in thinking that they could do pension reform. But I don't think they have a choice. I look as if Tispras is all but certain to do this. I think he knows that by doing this it will be political suicide for his career in politics but I believe that he has promises from other party's in the bailout that if he does that he will have a job somewhere else within the European business community. Tsipras has always wanted him to be seen as a hero in getting Greece economy back to where it was. There is a perfect play out there for him to make. If he is able to push the pension reform thru, and I can't see what other choice they have. It will all but certain cause another election. Which he will have no chance of winning. But before that election he would have got pension reform thru, and the IMF dept relief talks will have either begun discussions , or maybe even gotten dept relief by the time a election is held. So you say, wait, I'm saying he passes the reform, elections happen and he losses and that's his play? Well sure, cause he can sit back and wait, while the country adjust to all these reforms and has dept refeif begins to turn the table. If it does do that, he can then turn around and run again from PM and campaign that he was the hero in getting this done. That he was the only one who wanted these passed and that the country would not be on the brink of economic recovery without his reforms. Now I can't see why there is a reason right now to invest in this till after Easter, that being the timetable that IMF wants these changes done and would begin dept relief talks. Cause I could see him passing reform and then a election happening and him losing. That would cause the pps to be to violent to be involved at that time. I just really think Tsipras for only a year ago be completely the opposite view and only in late June to turn his opinion after replacing the fiance minister in talks to be able to get the bailout. I believe somewhere in those talks he had to know it was suicide and was promised something to implement it.
Now let's say the pass the reforms and get to the IMF dept relief. What will those look like? Nobody knows for sure but if you go back to the original talks in July that once a hot rumor that they where getting dept relief in the talks , and not this German takeover off a country that is just insane. I refer you to this French article that broke the story that it was only German officials that wanted these harsh measures, that all other party's wanted dept relief and knew that was the only positive bailout to reform the country.

http://m.france24.com/en/20150716-greece-bailout-killing-dream-europe-germany-grexit-brexit

Brussels creditors where never going to accept these losses at that time. But a dept relief now after the creditors have taking over any infrastructure in Greece of any value seems like a good trade. Tispras was the most important ally at that time to German creditors. Without him, being able to push these reforms thru, these creditors would have faced massive losses under either giving into dept relief in the bailout or a Greek exit which they would have gotten nothing. So you don't think they would have promised him something in return for doing this if he was to leave office afterwards? would be nieve to think otherwise.

Now let's say the only way the IMF will be involved if the creditors accept dept relief.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/21/imf-demands-debt-relief-from-europe-for-greece-before-new-bailout


I'm almost certain they would now. They have taken over and either sold or are the sole owner of most greece infrastructures. Those already getting some of the dept owed to them or by owning property or busineses that where acquired dirt cheap that if a Greek recovery where to happen could be sold at minimum 20x fold cost to them.

Another compelling argument towards Greece recovery could be very strange to most but it's on the table. If Britain leaves the EU , what happens to the EU? Six months ago it looked as if this was a ploy for Britain to receive a better deal from the EU to remain. But if you look at one major hinting point, is the continuing self off of the pound at record rate? It's as if someone knows that a Breexit wil happen thus causing the pound worthless , and will end it's currency state. Britain would form one currency for all of its territory. So if they leave would the EU collapse ? If it does what happens to dept owed? How would German creditors collect money from Greece when the country would have the Drago as its currency and there is no international law to force creditors money owed from a another country to be repaid or even a way to force it to .

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2016/02/02/do-they-really-want-your-money-back-op-ed-in-bild-zeitung/

Those I really think that come Easter will be the time to back up the trucks and RE invest in this. There is no upside now I think. Where could it go pps in the meantime. Maybe .40, but I could make the same compelling argument it goes to 0. Failed passing of pension, IMF not getting involved, no dept relief at all prior to IMF, even a World War 3 of Syria-Russia-Iran vs Turkey-UAE-US breaking out is a possibility. I don't see this happening but it could.

One last thing, to those who see no recovery at all. I'll leave you this link to this movie. It will explain the political game of banking and the IMF and what has happened for centuries. Not a movie from any left or right wing side just explaining what banking does and the IMF.

The Forecaster
http://imdb.com/rg/an_share/title/title/tt4103404/

Here is a YouTube link that will make it free to watch. A must see.