Thursday, February 04, 2016 4:23:08 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/03 2016 EOD
The day unfolded pretty much as expected during normal trading hours - lower volume no movement up, etc. The report, IMO, was a bit better than I, and apparently many others, expected based on the AH trading. Now we have to await full digestion by the market, about three days(?) to see what will happen going forward.
One thing I do feel safe in guessing - if price holds up the shorters will initially short the crap out of it to see if price can be pushed down so they can cover more cheaply. If they can't I don't expect a short squeeze because the report left some more to do in cost reduction - like consolidating the two manufacturing facilities that I've been wishing for over a long period now. This would suggest the shorters have no immediate risk. Add in how much of the gains in margin have been given up and how little recovered so far (all from memory - I will have to double-check) and the shorters likely feel no rush at all.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 1,756 shares for $1.32 and had no more trades until 9:36 did 500 shares $1.31 and the next minute 5K $1.31/2. Then medium and declining volume took price to $1.28 by 9:41 and low/no-volume $1.28/30 trading and ended at 9:59 with 100 shares at $1.29. 10:00-10:46, after 11 minutes of no trades, did ~17.8K through 10:13, 14.9K that last minute, taking price to $1.25 and began very no/low-volume $1.25/$1.26 and ended at $1.26. 10:47-11:39, after 12 minutes of no trades, did 100 shares at $1.28 and began no/low-volume $1.26/8 and dropped to $1.26/7 at 11:36. The period ended at $1.27.
11:40-13:38, after one minute of no trades, did ~3.1K $1.25/6 and began low/no-volume there. There was a big b/a buy imbalance for almost this whole period. At 13:16 it was 49:1 b/a $1.25/6. To me this looks like some kind of support going on - no movement, just make any buyers hit the asks for the most part so someone can sell higher? This looks supported by buy percentage going from 30.96% at 11:45 to 43.83 by 13:30. At 13:42 those offers (and some more that were apparently "hidden") were exhausted. The period ended at $1.26.
13:42-14:52, after three minutes of no trades, did ~3.3K $1.25/7 followed by a short volatile period that did $1.25/8 through 13:50 on an aggregate ~11.4K and came right back to $1.25/6 to resume no/low-volume trading there, again with a big b:a imbalance of 27:1 $1.25/6. The period ended at $1.25/6. 14:43-16:00, after no trade the first minute, did ~9.4K $1.25/6 to began a low-volume, through 15:21, series of flat, up, flat, up, ... and went medium/higher-volume at 15:21 hitting $1.28 at 15:26, $1.29 at 15:37 and $1.32 at 15:58 and ended the period and day with a sell of 470 shares for $1.28.
There were thirty-six AH trades totaling 55,930 shares traded $1.39 to $1.60.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades totaling 36,385, 14.02% of day's volume, with a $1.3255 VWAP.
On my minimal chart, thanks to AH trades, we blew through the short and medium-term resistances. If trading through the EOD only is used the range would be $1.28 through $1.32, putting all trading at and below the medium and short-term resistances (bottom-most blue and orange lines). This is no surprising with quarterly reporting due after the close. It also would have resulted in volume being 203,646, lower than yesterday as I expected.
Regardless, none of this means much for a day or two as the apparent reception to good results often give aberrant behavior for a few days before we can see some normal behavior return to establish new trends.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to rise while the 20-day keeps falling, these being at $1.2870 and $1.2610 respectively ($1.2640 and $1.2710 yesterday). I had begun to doubt we'd be able to get a cross out of these two, but the AH action and what I think was a better than expected report caused it to occur. The question now becomes if the 10-day leading the 20-day up can continue.
We need to wait a few days and let the short-term jitters work out of the market before we can try to reliably assess the situation.
The oscillators I watch had RSI and Williams %R flat, MFI (untrusted by me) improved, momentum (essentially at neutral), accumulation/distribution, full stochastic, and ADX-related weakened. Given the behavior prior to the earnings release I don't think this is surprising. But given the generally positive nature of the release and AH action, I think this stuff should be ignored until a few days have passed.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.0418 and $1.4475 ($1.0352 and $1.4456 yesterday) are barely diverging right now. However, with the AH prices if there's follow-through tomorrow the should diverge widely as the higher range affects both limits.
All in, considering only the regular-hours trading I would be slightly bearish due to the volume and trading range through EOD. But factoring in the report being fairly positive and the AH action I bullish for a few days. A few days is generally about how long it takes for the short-term knee-jerk reactions to peter out. Then we'll be able to better assess if market sentiment has turned or not.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but keep in mind that buy percentage is measured through 15:59. Going to the end of AH trading buy percentage was 42.16%, making the buy percentage rise slightly less egregious. Unfortunately there's no way to break out daily short sales, so I have only the whole day value available. So I wouldn't consider this in trying to assess "what's next".
The spread is really wide but, again, is affected by the AH trades. Using only the regular-hours the spread would be ~3% ($1.28-$1.32). Using this all would be calm. But even that must be viewed with jaundiced eye as the volume was down in regular hours, as expected, and it makes sense that nobody gets way bullish or bearish on the day of the report. So I would see this as neutral regarding any near-term action.
VWAP movement was positive using the whole day plus AH trading. But if only through 16:00 is used the VWAP would be $1.2711, a movement of -3.54%. As before, considering the market was awaiting the report I wouldn't try to draw any conclusions about forward activity from this.
All in, I can't draw any reliable assessments from this because of the abnormal nature of the day while awaiting the quarterly report.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
The day unfolded pretty much as expected during normal trading hours - lower volume no movement up, etc. The report, IMO, was a bit better than I, and apparently many others, expected based on the AH trading. Now we have to await full digestion by the market, about three days(?) to see what will happen going forward.
One thing I do feel safe in guessing - if price holds up the shorters will initially short the crap out of it to see if price can be pushed down so they can cover more cheaply. If they can't I don't expect a short squeeze because the report left some more to do in cost reduction - like consolidating the two manufacturing facilities that I've been wishing for over a long period now. This would suggest the shorters have no immediate risk. Add in how much of the gains in margin have been given up and how little recovered so far (all from memory - I will have to double-check) and the shorters likely feel no rush at all.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 1,756 shares for $1.32 and had no more trades until 9:36 did 500 shares $1.31 and the next minute 5K $1.31/2. Then medium and declining volume took price to $1.28 by 9:41 and low/no-volume $1.28/30 trading and ended at 9:59 with 100 shares at $1.29. 10:00-10:46, after 11 minutes of no trades, did ~17.8K through 10:13, 14.9K that last minute, taking price to $1.25 and began very no/low-volume $1.25/$1.26 and ended at $1.26. 10:47-11:39, after 12 minutes of no trades, did 100 shares at $1.28 and began no/low-volume $1.26/8 and dropped to $1.26/7 at 11:36. The period ended at $1.27.
11:40-13:38, after one minute of no trades, did ~3.1K $1.25/6 and began low/no-volume there. There was a big b/a buy imbalance for almost this whole period. At 13:16 it was 49:1 b/a $1.25/6. To me this looks like some kind of support going on - no movement, just make any buyers hit the asks for the most part so someone can sell higher? This looks supported by buy percentage going from 30.96% at 11:45 to 43.83 by 13:30. At 13:42 those offers (and some more that were apparently "hidden") were exhausted. The period ended at $1.26.
13:42-14:52, after three minutes of no trades, did ~3.3K $1.25/7 followed by a short volatile period that did $1.25/8 through 13:50 on an aggregate ~11.4K and came right back to $1.25/6 to resume no/low-volume trading there, again with a big b:a imbalance of 27:1 $1.25/6. The period ended at $1.25/6. 14:43-16:00, after no trade the first minute, did ~9.4K $1.25/6 to began a low-volume, through 15:21, series of flat, up, flat, up, ... and went medium/higher-volume at 15:21 hitting $1.28 at 15:26, $1.29 at 15:37 and $1.32 at 15:58 and ended the period and day with a sell of 470 shares for $1.28.
There were thirty-six AH trades totaling 55,930 shares traded $1.39 to $1.60.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades totaling 36,385, 14.02% of day's volume, with a $1.3255 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements (excluding AH trades for the high) were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:59 13425 $1.2800 $1.3200 $17,496.22 $1.3033 5.17% 39.70% Incl 09:37 $1.3199 4,500
10:46 22347 $1.2500 $1.2800 $28,026.88 $1.2542 8.61% 29.91% Incl 10:13 $1.2500 6,785
11:39 11575 $1.2600 $1.2800 $14,709.60 $1.2708 4.46% 31.00%
13:38 27185 $1.2500 $1.2600 $34,198.88 $1.2580 10.47% 43.16%
14:52 30869 $1.2500 $1.2800 $38,884.64 $1.2597 11.89% 44.82%
16:00 92779 $1.2550 $1.3200 $118,583.86 $1.2781 35.74% 37.33% Incl 14:54 $1.2600 4,000
15:46 $1.2800 8,100 15:47 5,000
16:52 9720 $1.3900 $1.5000 $13,943.80 $1.4345 3.74% 43.66%
17:09 17700 $1.5100 $1.6000 $27,608.00 $1.5598 6.82% 44.95%
18:14 9800 $1.4700 $1.5500 $14,929.20 $1.5234 3.78% 43.99%
19:41 18700 $1.5000 $1.5001 $28,050.87 $1.5000 7.20% 40.82% Incl 19:41 $1.5001 4,000 19:41 $1.5000 4,000
Using the AH trades for the high, $1.60, the movement was 16.79%.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.22% -1.57% -3.65% 0.00% 16.67%
Prior -6.90% -5.93% -6.80% -5.88% -44.36%
On my minimal chart, thanks to AH trades, we blew through the short and medium-term resistances. If trading through the EOD only is used the range would be $1.28 through $1.32, putting all trading at and below the medium and short-term resistances (bottom-most blue and orange lines). This is no surprising with quarterly reporting due after the close. It also would have resulted in volume being 203,646, lower than yesterday as I expected.
Regardless, none of this means much for a day or two as the apparent reception to good results often give aberrant behavior for a few days before we can see some normal behavior return to establish new trends.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continues to rise while the 20-day keeps falling, these being at $1.2870 and $1.2610 respectively ($1.2640 and $1.2710 yesterday). I had begun to doubt we'd be able to get a cross out of these two, but the AH action and what I think was a better than expected report caused it to occur. The question now becomes if the 10-day leading the 20-day up can continue.
We need to wait a few days and let the short-term jitters work out of the market before we can try to reliably assess the situation.
The oscillators I watch had RSI and Williams %R flat, MFI (untrusted by me) improved, momentum (essentially at neutral), accumulation/distribution, full stochastic, and ADX-related weakened. Given the behavior prior to the earnings release I don't think this is surprising. But given the generally positive nature of the release and AH action, I think this stuff should be ignored until a few days have passed.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.0418 and $1.4475 ($1.0352 and $1.4456 yesterday) are barely diverging right now. However, with the AH prices if there's follow-through tomorrow the should diverge widely as the higher range affects both limits.
All in, considering only the regular-hours trading I would be slightly bearish due to the volume and trading range through EOD. But factoring in the report being fairly positive and the AH action I bullish for a few days. A few days is generally about how long it takes for the short-term knee-jerk reactions to peter out. Then we'll be able to better assess if market sentiment has turned or not.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions but keep in mind that buy percentage is measured through 15:59. Going to the end of AH trading buy percentage was 42.16%, making the buy percentage rise slightly less egregious. Unfortunately there's no way to break out daily short sales, so I have only the whole day value available. So I wouldn't consider this in trying to assess "what's next".
The spread is really wide but, again, is affected by the AH trades. Using only the regular-hours the spread would be ~3% ($1.28-$1.32). Using this all would be calm. But even that must be viewed with jaundiced eye as the volume was down in regular hours, as expected, and it makes sense that nobody gets way bullish or bearish on the day of the report. So I would see this as neutral regarding any near-term action.
VWAP movement was positive using the whole day plus AH trading. But if only through 16:00 is used the VWAP would be $1.2711, a movement of -3.54%. As before, considering the market was awaiting the report I wouldn't try to draw any conclusions about forward activity from this.
All in, I can't draw any reliable assessments from this because of the abnormal nature of the day while awaiting the quarterly report.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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