Strategy Central

[shortterm]

It's a bit similar for oil producers

The important thing for a novice (you clearly aren't one) investing in these areas is that the shares are geared investments on the underlying commodity: the shares price in the current price plus the future production. An ounce of gold is just that. It actually costs to hold as it pays no interest or dividend. It is pure bet on the price of gold which is a factor of fear plus demand and supply.

I made good money on the futures, but I have only tiny position left. I would not touch any shares of those now. And some elliot wavers (Elliot wave international) are calling for the gold to fall big time.

The other thing that I do not understand at all is their call for USD to strengten which makes no sense at all to me. They expect a big break out in the style of the year before when everyone based on fundamentals was calling the USD to fall and it just kept going up.

Btw. anyone who is interested can get their US market forcasts free for a week just by registering: www.elliotwave.com

They called today's action quite well. You get intraday updates and those state the uncertainties.

PokerSam, I think that they disagree with you in the details but not in the big picture. I had no time to try to compare what you say versus what they say exactly, but I think they are more negative but the over all idea they have agrees with what you say and what I think. But I need no fancy waves. Just what always has taken place: end of summer is almost always down and if the start is difficult then it is even more dramatic. Liquidity also falls off so the volatility goes up...

Short covering produces sharp rallies which are wonderful for selling again as long as you don't over do it because it is diffult to predict how far things go....