So ABBV was ~90-100MM higher than BMY in HCV sales - I was wrong (again). With JNJ out of the market (not counting the $44MM in OUS sales that will also disappear), it looks like GILD will exit '15 with 82-84% of the worldwide market. The total market should be at a $23-24B run-rate. I am expecting GILD Q4 HCV sales to be flat QOQ, or slightly up based on huge Japanese sales (another chance to be wrong).
I would expect GILD to hold at least 75% of the WW market for '16. The WW market should increase slightly, with the increases in the EU and Japan offsetting declines in the US, which may be significnt if MRK discounts the list price a lot (though I agree that it surely looks like the drug itself is not very competitive). Japan should be huge in '16, even with significant price decreases expected in Q2. I would hope that the UK would also produce higher treatment rates.
The major questions remain related to '17 and beyond. With a huge number of people being treated in Japan, the major hope for a long run is the rationing in the the EU (and the insurance restrictions in the US). It still hard for me to see additional growth beyond '16. The hope is that there will not be a cliff. Clearly most of the professional analysts are looking for at least a modified cliff.
I am again a big buyer of GILD ITM options, both short and long term. I rarely make much on short term options, but the long-term options have been big winners in the past. I am not as optimistic today, just because of my concerns about '17 and beyond sales. JMO.
AI
