Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[golfho]

Some interesting factoids...


As of December 9, 2015, there were 229,701,808 shares of common stock.

39,622,557 shares of common stock reserved for issuance under outstanding option grants and available for issuance under our stock incentive plans;

2,090,892 shares of common stock reserved for and available for issuance under our ESPP

273,280 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of outstanding warrants; and

45,745,760 shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of our outstanding Series E Preferred Stock

321,299,554 shares are outstanding or reserved for issuance at a later date.

So now we know why the request for an increase in authorized shares from 325M to 500M was needed in October.

Subsequent to October 31, 2015 and through December 10, 2015, we sold 1,939,413 shares of common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of $2,261,000.

Subsequent to October 31, 2015 and through December 10, 2015, we sold 1,925,844 shares of common stock for aggregate gross proceeds of $2,371,000.

Average price per share for the 2 ATM sales were ~$1.20


Total cost & expenses 2013: $50,035,000
Total cost & expenses 2014: $58,107,000
Total cost & expenses 2015: $77,280,000
Total cost & expenses ½ year 2016: $46,772,000

I choose to be conservative and assume that the rate of expenditures will remain about the same for the second half of the FY that will end on 4-30-16
~$46M
From which we can subtract money already raised through the ATM from 10-31-15 to 12-9-15 = ~ $4.6M
Additionally we can subtract AVID I projected revenue per management guidance. (~ $30M to $35M less ~ $18.9M realized in the first half = ~ $11M to $16M) = ~ $25.4M to 30.4M by end of FY.
Other factors are:
1- Additional revenue from AVID II
2- reduction of cash on hand.

What is implied…???
Baring any significant positive news or cash infusion we end the 2016 FY with ~255M to 260M shares outstanding. (I assume ~$1.00 per share)

On to SUNRISE…

Historical data for Docetaxel suggests that a MOS number for a similar health level of patients is about 10 months. I arbitrarily select a margin of error of +/- 20%...That yields an 8 to 12 month range. It’s a little bit more difficult to establish a range for Bavituximab + Docetaxel so I will select what I consider a reasonable number…Like 13 months and select a larger margin of error (+/- 25%). I then started to review the rules for Permutation and Combination…Whoa…!!! Cowboy…That yields a very big number…!!! In an attempt to save my sanity, I chose to use only whole number and used a manual binary search. I know…I know…Some of you are saying…The old boy has finally lost it…Tsk…tsk…

What am I saying…??? There are many potential outcomes that are, or becoming, virtually mathematically impossible. They would be the projected low MOS numbers i.e. 10:8, 11:8, etc.

What else…???

A picture is worth a thousand words:



1- The first look-in will most likely occur within the next few weeks. (2 to 4)
2- We will most likely complete enrollment within the next two weeks.

As Couch says often…The rest is noise.

Regards
golfho