SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[livinginthelimelight]

It's purely technical Franch...

it has been a sure short bet for weeks and mind you I was short previously. Technically it has broken the downtrend convincingly. I am not saying "this is a bottom and oil is going to 100", I just think we get a rally similar to when it was in the low 40's and went to 50. My target is 38. At that point I can reevaluate and look at (technically) what I should do. Fortunately, I have the advantage of being friendly with many very good technical guys on the street. I take my own view and avg in theirs then go with it. The majority of time, I am early ( as are they). But over the past 20 years we have done very well.

I am sure defaults are coming, but in the mean time, I follow the money flow and institutions (along with technicals) ...all of them tell me oil trades higher in the short term.

I understand your contra view (and I used to be the same way) but we all need to understand stocks don't ever travel in straight lines.

I am simply trying to take advantage of a short term trend and of course this is my opinion. Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes I am correct.