Astellas got 11% more shares-
Approx 4,620,000 shares more on Extension Round #1
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE HOLIDAYS, LOL !! So when one counts the actual trading days, the additional days the market was closed, how much people travel, how no phone-bank calling service was being used etc- it's stunning to me they got within THREE PERCENT of what they need to close the deal.
If they got 11% through the biggest U.S. holiday season of the year- when people are distracted and busy as all heck and half of Wall Street literally packs up and shuts down and leaves town from about the 23rd of Dec and doesn't return till Jan 2nd at the earliest-
Then how tough is it gonna be for Astellas to bag a lousy 1,267,000 additional shares now? Now that there's been a horrific route and collapse in the US and global markets- triggering margin calls, making funds go negative returns for the first time in YEARS, etc?
I don't think it's gonna be tough at all. I think everything just tilted even more in Astellas' favor- given that OCATA knows the reality they'd now face in a global recession and tightening, collapsing capital markets, etc AND the funds and "big boy" players now know all that too.
The ARBITRAGE boys are gonna be happy with a 3%, 4% annualized return on their money at this point IMO- when it's 100% SAFE like an ALL CASH ARB DEAL IS. It beats cash, which pays um a ZERO percent return. All these funds are gonna have to report Q-1 results after March 31st, and it's gonna be fugly-ugly given what's happened in these markets.
If they (any fund, hedge player, large holder) have any "winners" or "sure thing" profits they can "book" in their portfolios- any and all funds, managed funds, "big boy" money is gonna take profits NOW and never look back IMO. When you're looking at the markets bleeding red- and you got some green in your portfolio, you take profits and head for the door.
I think this last 3% is gonna be bagged w/o even trying hard- all the stars just aligned and tilted even more towards Astellas favor the way I see it. They just grind it out now- that last 3% of shares needed, commence the merger and close it up.
I don't even think Astellas is gonna need a price bump now. I thought they might need that last price bump- but the fact they got sooo close now at 47% and the markets are literally in melt down mode, I think Astellas will likely wrap this up right at $8.50 a share, no need for any last "kicker" or "sweetner" like I first surmised.
Look at the volume today and how the price went right back, tight to the Tender- it tells me that the "Street" is seeing this as being as good as done IMO. Heck, Astellas probably just bagged 30% more of the 1,267,000 shares they need- JUST TODAY, LOL!! Gonna crack a MILLION shares today. A few more days like this- and they can seal this deal.
Posts contain only my amateur opinions, personal views and thoughts. I discuss stocks as a hobby only. Always do one's own due diligence before investing.
