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Re: A deleted message

Thursday, 01/21/2016 4:14:21 PM

Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:14:21 PM

Post# of 146009

Let's start with the assumption that $45 MM sales each year for HerpeCide is realistic. Although I have provided reasons as to why it might be significantly greater in a previous message.

The 4x P/E multiplier that is being applied is not nearly the average for revenue generating Drug or Health Care companies.

If you look up P/E ratios in Pharma (in general - http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/033015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-drugs-sector.asp) on Investopedia, it states that as of March, 2015 the average P/E ratio in the drugs sector is about 24x. Health Care sector (in general) is >16x.

So even assuming that the gross revenue from HerpeCide is only $45 MM - and that the number of shares is still in the ballpark of 60 MM - the earnings/share would be $0.75 gross. A P/E of 16 would then give a share price of $12/share. A P/E of 24 would then give a share price of $18/share. A P/E of 100x would give a share price of $75/share,.... Not that I anticipate a P/E of 100x is likely.

Assuming that revenues from a HerpeCide are similar from all overseas sources and gross earnings = $90 MM,... then increase share prices based on that accordingly.

I suspect that the 16-24x range is a realistic one to start out once it looks like HerpeCide is ready to hit the market and start drawing in some income - but speculation could easily drive it higer.

And as the revenue from a FluCide comes into play a year or so later,.... what would happen if the gross earnings/share were to run up to $2/share,.... 24 x $2 = $48,....

Given time enough to get some products rolling out and some revenue rolling in,.... $100/share is not at all unreasonable.


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