InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 164
Posts 5938
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 01/30/2003

Re: None

Tuesday, 07/11/2006 11:41:48 PM

Tuesday, July 11, 2006 11:41:48 PM

Post# of 282
VNBL DD #1 For Newcomers

VNBL has a 5% interest in a well that is currently being drilled as we speak. They expect to prove reserves of 11 million barrels of oil from an historically proven territory referred to as the Clovelly Field. From this link you will see the Clovelly Field has been producing oil and gas for many years. http://www.cgrpttc.lsu.edu/lainfo/prodfld/ (Scroll Down and select Clovelly) Highly unlikely they won't find a payout in my opinion.

The O/S on this stock right now is 97,595,274. As many of you may be aware, the SEC does not allow a company to record reserves as an asset on their financial's until it has been proven. It does not matter what type of technology you use to show there is oil under an area of land, it is not considered proven until you have drilled the property and have proven a plan of recovery of the oil.

Now for the fun part -

11 million barrels x $70 a barrel = $770,000,000

$770,000,000 x 5% interest = $38,500,000

$38,500,000 / 97,595,274 shares outstanding = asset book value of 39 cents a share.

Now for real book value:

Asset from new well if proved = $38,500,000

$38,500,000 + $1,825,000 assets currently reported in most recent filing = $40,325,000

$40,325,000 - $612,000 in total liabilities reported on last SEC filing = $39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity

$39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity / 97,595,274 Shares Outstanding = 41 cents Book Value.

If they do hit recoverable oil, the book value of the stock will jump to 41 cents a share. Now when we consider that oil stocks are currently trading two - three times book value, we could theoretically see the stock trading to as high as $.82 - $1.23 in a very short period of time. That would generate one heck of a return for a stock currently trading at 2 cents a share. Now I am not speculating the stock will ever trade to $1.23 but I have however proven it to be a real possibility if they do prove oil with the current drilling program.

Considering today’s technology used to identify oil reserves, the chance of not finding oil in this already proven area have been significantly reduced as opposed to several years back. In my opinion. I believe it is highly likely the Drill Rig will discover what VNBL and the JV’s are anticipating. I don't seem to be the only one expecting to see value added to this stock, let’s take a look at the CFO / CEO trading action.

Catherine Thompson is the CFO / CEO of VNBL, below I have outlined her trading pattern and dates. The obvious here is that if anyone is going to know where the stock price is going to go, it is going to be the CFO / CEO.

Lets first point out that Catherine was selling her holding of stock in this company as late as October of 2004. Obviously she knew what she was doing as the stock has done nothing but head straight down ever since.

Catherine seems to now have a change of heart as to the direction she believes the stock will be trading as shown by the shares she has recently taken on with no SEC filings indicating she has sold a single share since October 2004.

Stock Transactions:
7/1/2005 - 700,000 Shares at 10 cents
2/6/2006 - 1,166,667 Shares at 3 cents
2/9/2006 - 55,000 Shares at 3 cents
3/31/2006 - 897,462 Shares at 1.3 cents
4/25/2006 - 618,519 Shares at 1.35 cents
5/4/2006 - 1,041,464 Shares at 1.12 cents

Catherine has quite a large position of stock in this company and as I stated, she has not been selling but taking on even more shares. My guess is that the reasoning behind her taking on all these shares revolves around what she anticipates the value of the stock to be once it can realize the Clovelly South Prospect reserves in its financial filings. This is just a hunch but if the reason for holding all these shares is not because of the Clovelly South Prospect then it must be because of something else she is in the know about. It only makes sense that Catherine has a much better insight as to which direction this stock is going to trade in the near future than I do for obvious inside reasons.

The last thing I would like to point out here is that as of May 2nd 2005, VNBL came off the SHO list. To get on the SHO list, there must be an illegal necked short position in your stock. Those that sale these illegal shares are very organized and very in tune with a company’s status. These large organized groups sell these illegal shares into a stock they believe will never have a viable business and will just disappear one day. In this situation, the large organized group never has to cover there illegal shorted position.

I have studied this illegal shorting activity for the past three years now, I have become very knowledgeable on this subject. One thing I have found is that you can buy up all the shares in your own company you want, you can buy up the entire float, but the most successful way of forcing these groups to cover is by adding real value to your company. I can go into how this works in greater detail on another date but my point here is that smart money found a viable reason to cover there illegally shorted position.

I do not claim to be an expert on fundamentals but I do believe this DD summary to be fully factual and accurate to the best of my knowledge. All of this information has been generated directly from recent PR’s and most importantly the SEC filings. If anyone has any question or needs me to go into greater detail, don't hesitate to ask. I believe this stock to present the home run possibilities everyone hopes to be a part of and I wish everyone the best of luck.

Brad

The info and DD I provide is accurate and factual to the best of my knowledge but still I am human and you should always do your own DD.

Benjamin Franklin once said -
"I am a strong believer in luck and I find the harder I work the more I have of it."

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.