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Re: elysse1kittycat post# 91978

Saturday, 01/09/2016 9:04:02 AM

Saturday, January 09, 2016 9:04:02 AM

Post# of 92948
Elysse1, about selling/tendering: for a while I was about to untender and sell out on the market the rest of my position, but I see enough compelling evidence that the tender is likely to be successful that I'm going to keep my shares tendered for now. If there is any "bonus" at the end, like a slightly high offer price, I believe that share tendered now would receive the same price everyone else gets. For a while I was pretty antsy about selling the shares because of, I think pretty rational, paranoia about something going terribly wrong with the tender. But the trading volume and signals from various bits of evidence, Lanza statement, Gabelli arbitrage, Matt's interview, high trading volume, the hiring of this merger investor relations firm, my feeling is that Astellas really wants this deal to go through to the extent that they are likely to raise the offer price slightly rather than walk away--this is based on the hiring of the PR firm. IN any case, the simple truth is that at 8.50 per share, I'm losing like 20% of my investment in this company. That's fine because, as I've said in the past, I really look at the end of this OCAT/ACTC saga in my life as the beginning of a completely new way of looking at investing. I have a 30 year plan for building wealth now (lots of DIV compounding over time) and I'm not going to speculate anymore, other than long term sector specific "speculations" by buying and holding ETFs in some developing economies (Vietnam) or something like that. I've read about 3-4 books on investing in the last 6 months, and for someone of my age and goals going "all in" on something like OCATA in the future is no longer a viable or reasonable thing to do. If i lose, I lose everything. I did sell for about 19% loss all my shares in another brokerage account on new year's eve. I feel like i have some money safe now. If something goes terribly wrong with this tender it will be my fault for not just bailing and selling now. I don't know what your position is but if losing to you is a MAJOR loss selling now is always the safest bet. IMHO maybe I AM playing with fire by waiting it out. There is a very human thing: we like to be involved in the narrative, the story, the drama and stick things out to the end. In this way, I am totally a long term shareholder. Letting go for me is just as hard as everyone else even if I tend to read this situation very differently. We've all been through years of drama and BS, I think it has an impact on everyone and makes it hard to just press sell without thinking thrice or four times over.
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