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Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Supply Data

Investors move to close out bearish bets before year’s end

Updated Dec. 29, 2015 10:37 a.m.

News Link: http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-prices-rise-on-u-s-export-prospects-1451388295

Oil prices rose on Tuesday ahead of potentially bullish inventory data and as investors moved to close out bearish bets before year’s end.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery gained 85 cents, or 2.3%, to $37.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, advanced 96 cents, or 2.6%, to $37.58 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said late Monday that oil traders had shrunk their bet on rising oil prices to its second smallest position in the last five years.

The Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia. PHOTO:REUTERSThe number of traders betting against oil prices had been growing, but now many expect those traders may start bidding up the market because they will need to buy back contracts and close out bearish positions before year’s end.

The U.S. government will release its weekly inventory data on Wednesday, while the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, will release its supply report on Tuesday. The data are likely to show a drawdown in stockpiles for the third time in four weeks, brokers and analysts said.

With many traders off for the holidays, volume is light, and that can exaggerate price moves. U.S. and Brent oil, as well as gasoline and diesel futures all hit new lows in the last two weeks dating back to 2004 and 2009, which is also pushing traders to bet on a rebound.

Gasoline futures rose 2.7% at $1.2662 a gallon on the Nymex and diesel futures gained 3.7% at $1.1306 a gallon.

“When you get down around low levels—or common lows—[...] people look at those as targets and bid it back up,” said Donald Morton, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co., who runs an energy-trading desk.

Brent is still skirting close to 11-year lows with several factors weighing heavily on the benchmark.

In the Middle East, low oil prices have even prompted Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, to increase gasoline prices by 60% to $0.20 a liter. The Saudi Press Agency also said new measures aimed at curbing huge utilities subsidies are to be introduced over the next five years. Prompting the move is the kingdom’s budget deficit, standing at $98 billion for 2015.

The move comes as Saudi Arabia’s regional rival Iran prepares to resume oil exports, leading analysts to predict that, alongside a similar move in the U.S., the global oil glut could take longer to clear than first anticipated.

Fuel subsidies in Saudi Arabia are a sensitive political issue and the changes likely won’t be popular. Other major oil producers from Gulf Cooperation Council countries include Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and all rely almost entirely on hydrocarbons for government revenues.

“If the combination of the lifting of the export ban on Iranian and U.S. crude oil translates into oil prices lower for longer, then the geopolitical risks in GCC countries will be higher for longer,” said Olivier Jakob from Swiss-based research group Petromatrix.