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Thursday, 12/24/2015 1:12:16 PM

Thursday, December 24, 2015 1:12:16 PM

Post# of 147297
If you want to benefit from Apple's downside activity, don't short the stock, but short the options. The people on the other side of writing covered calls are mostly poorly capitalized long options buyers who just know they will hit it big, and therefore are willing to pay large time premiums to have some of the action.

Its no accident that about 80% of all long options trades expire worthless. Long options are the only "investment" I know of where you can quickly lose most of your money. The "smart money" is the seller, not the buyer. Appl is great for this, but timing is really important... these are short term trades... i.e. days to a few weeks. As for the company, I own it and plan to keep it.

Besides, who cares whether Apple naysayers like it or not.Apple naysayers have been harping on the point that Apple is a one-trick-pony n over relying on China. How come we don't read the same comments abt Nike....selling mainly running shoes (one trick pony?) and trying to rely on China for bigger growth. Nike has been ''darling'' throughout 2015 n yet made a tiny profit compared to apple's. Hope those bean counter analysts be more objective in the assessment of Apple.

Since at least 2011 Apple has had a yearly close that's higher than the previous year. The year end closing was 108.53. As I write the stock is at 108.35. I have a feeling that if Apple closes below the 107-108 level to end the year people will get disgusted and mass selling might ensue. Operationally the company is firing on all cylinders. That would make buying Apple after the bloodbath a sure bet to bounce back strongly based on fundamentals and sentiment. If the level is violated I'll be buying puts at the beginning of the year to protect my long positions.
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