Yes I think you are correct. I stopped trying to catch a bounce on this falling knife early Friday morning (cut a very small loss) and took a small short position for the ride down. My reasoning for shorting it is as follows as I expect UWTI could drop into the low to high 2's by mid winter.
The futures curve showing healthy contango from front to back month contract--January trading at 35.62 February trading at 37.25. We're gonna see this for many months to come IMO. UWTI is completely in February as of close Friday. March contract is trading about 3.5% higher than February and that gap should widen as February drops toward spot price this month. By mid January UWTI will be in March futures. If March futures go to only $35 and not lower, UTWI will be right around $3 due to contango alone. Many oil companies are preparing for sub $30 oil in Q1 as a poster to this board noted earlier this week (I think he works in the industry).
Fortunately for you the contango benefits DWTI just as it hurts UWTI. Once again, well played! I wish I had had the discipline to stick with the short side of the trade from mid fall when DWTI was trading at $57. I prefer to short UWTI to capture the geometric decay as well. But I digress. Have a good weekend.
As the old cliche goes, "knowledge is power." Knowledge and education in trading are key to success. Never stop learning.
