Saturday, November 21, 2015 3:31:31 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/20 2015 EOD
Today was unusual in one regard - we opened low and didn't do the common move up when we open down. There wasn't even a normal early push up followed by a plummet. Instead price just immediately began a day-long flat, drop some, flat, drop some, ... through 14:16, when we finally recovered a small amount and went sideways, with a few blips higher and then back to the sideways level into the close. Volume was up significantly from yesterday, but still well-below the 10-day average of ~451.6K. I don't know if this was just a "Friday effect" or serious selling - volume wouldn't suggest that.
It does start (or end?) the right side of my "volume cupping pattern" but not with price moving where I had hoped.
We made a new all-time intra-day low and a new all-time low close.
I probably ought to have given more attention to yesterday's 58% short percentage combined with the widening spread and considered that our inverted flag indications might still have effect. I was pre-disposed, I think, to believe yesterday's "green" on the charts and VWAP combined with the "volume cupping pattern" apparently moving towards the positive I expected.
Live and learn!
Is it over? Maybe not. I would have preferred that the right side of the "cup" on the volume was accompanied by a price rise but it's not a certainty that happens even when price direction and behavior is about to change for the better. As mentioned a few days back, we don't know which way it will break. And we still don't. All we know right now is we have the cup (completed or completing?) and volume rose on a down day that happened to be a Friday.
There were no pre-market trades.
Trading open down 2.05% on a sell of 4,736 shares for $1.91 and immediately went very low volume trading $1.91/4 with bids and offers converging, and lots of zero-volume minutes until the period end at 9:56 traded $1.92. 9:57-10:31 began with a ~1.9K minute traded at $1.94->$1.90 which was followed by a 200-share minute that hit $1.91/2 and then traded no/low-volume $1.90/1 and ended at $1.90. 10:32-11:22 began with ~14K taking price down to $1.86 and began trading no/low-volume $1.85/7 until a step up series began at 10:40 on low-volume that took price to $1.90 at 10:50 and began very low-volume $1.87/$1.90 trading with falling highs, ending at $1.87/8. 11:23-12:47 began with a low-volume sag to $1.86, traded almost zero volume until 11:29 traded 14,850 shares as low as $1.89->$1.85 and began no/low-volume $1.85/6 trading, but for ~21K at 11:43 trading $1.85/8, ending the period at $1.85. 12:48-13:37 (no trades last two minutes) began with a two-minute ~6.1K drop to $1.83/4 and commenced no/low-volume trading in that range until 13:17 when a three-minute ~7K move to $1.81/2 occurred and ended the period at $1.81. 13:38-14:34 began with 27.8K trading $1.83->$1.77 (another all-time intra-day low) and commenced a no/low-volume $1.77/$1.80 trading with a falling range beginning at 14:01, interrupted by 8.6K $1.80->$1.76 (another all-time intra-day low) at 14:16, and ended the period at $1.80. 14:35-15:36 began with a two-minute 9.8K range of $1.79->1.81 and began no/low-volume $1.79/$1.80 trading, but for a 5K $1.79->$1.82 minute at 14:56, and ended the period at $1.79. 15:37-16:00 began with 3.6K doing $1.79-$1.83 and began low-volume $1.79/$1.82 trading with rising lows and finally flattened to trade $1.80 at 15:56 on low volume and closed the day with a 1,150 share sell at $1.80.
There was one AH sell of 188 shares for $1.75.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify) there were four larger trades (>=5K) totaling 22,295 shares, 7.68% of day's volume, with a $1.8494 VWAP.
Yesterday I noted { Tomorrow being Friday may break the pattern though because Friday's are often when some exit to avoid being exposed to weekend exogenous events. }
Regardless of that, my optimism, which returned in the last couple of days, is back in the closet for now.
On my minimal chart we've got another short-term descending wedge. Let's hope the break is upward this time. I'm still holding to yesterday's { I'll wait for the trend of rising volume on rising prices to show more strongly before getting all giddy. } Today, of course, doesn't meet that criteria.
On my one-year chart, price, which had opened a small gap above the descending channel support line, moved right back to sit atop it again. So the price continues making a grind lower right on that support line.
The oscillators I watch, which had improved yesterday, all weakened and remain (deeper) in oversold and those without oversold markings remain way below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger Band is sinking it's mid-point towards price, as I feared might happen, rather than price rising to the mid-point.
All in, only the cupping volume offers any hope we may be near reversing this downward trend. If price had been up rather than down, it would be a bit more than hope. For now, still waiting.
Yesterday I said { I think today was the start of my flattish-to-rising pattern developing. But tomorrow is Friday, so maybe it's delayed? We'll see.
All in, I remain more optimistic right now. }
Well, that didn't work out well did it?
Yesterday I took heart from the buy percentage strength throughout the first half of the day and, I think, mistakenly read the excessive short percentage as an effect of this without considering that the intra-day behavior didn't offer a lot of attractive covering buy opportunities for the MMs. That suggests they weren't short-term long and had no reason to hold price up - in fact maybe just the opposite.
The easiest way to generate volume, which is how they make their money from fees from the exchanges, is to drive price down by naked shorting until volume comes in. If sellers come in, which is apparently what happened today, they get the fees and they get attractive covering buy prices appearing. They sold high (yesterday?) and then bought low (today?) just sitting on the falling bids, which means they got the fees for providing liquidity at the same time any short positions were getting covered.
Nice work if you can get it.
Opening low and just going more-or-less straight lower without the usual bump up first may support this scenario.
If this is what happened today we could see price held up tomorrow.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction again, which is hopeful as it suggests "normalcy". Unfortunately both are below what I think is needed to see price rise right now. Add in that our price spread remains wide and we are now again known in a down trend (another descending wedge) and prospects are not positive for now. The wedge is acute so it shouldn't take long to see which way we break.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today was unusual in one regard - we opened low and didn't do the common move up when we open down. There wasn't even a normal early push up followed by a plummet. Instead price just immediately began a day-long flat, drop some, flat, drop some, ... through 14:16, when we finally recovered a small amount and went sideways, with a few blips higher and then back to the sideways level into the close. Volume was up significantly from yesterday, but still well-below the 10-day average of ~451.6K. I don't know if this was just a "Friday effect" or serious selling - volume wouldn't suggest that.
It does start (or end?) the right side of my "volume cupping pattern" but not with price moving where I had hoped.
We made a new all-time intra-day low and a new all-time low close.
I probably ought to have given more attention to yesterday's 58% short percentage combined with the widening spread and considered that our inverted flag indications might still have effect. I was pre-disposed, I think, to believe yesterday's "green" on the charts and VWAP combined with the "volume cupping pattern" apparently moving towards the positive I expected.
Live and learn!
Is it over? Maybe not. I would have preferred that the right side of the "cup" on the volume was accompanied by a price rise but it's not a certainty that happens even when price direction and behavior is about to change for the better. As mentioned a few days back, we don't know which way it will break. And we still don't. All we know right now is we have the cup (completed or completing?) and volume rose on a down day that happened to be a Friday.
There were no pre-market trades.
Trading open down 2.05% on a sell of 4,736 shares for $1.91 and immediately went very low volume trading $1.91/4 with bids and offers converging, and lots of zero-volume minutes until the period end at 9:56 traded $1.92. 9:57-10:31 began with a ~1.9K minute traded at $1.94->$1.90 which was followed by a 200-share minute that hit $1.91/2 and then traded no/low-volume $1.90/1 and ended at $1.90. 10:32-11:22 began with ~14K taking price down to $1.86 and began trading no/low-volume $1.85/7 until a step up series began at 10:40 on low-volume that took price to $1.90 at 10:50 and began very low-volume $1.87/$1.90 trading with falling highs, ending at $1.87/8. 11:23-12:47 began with a low-volume sag to $1.86, traded almost zero volume until 11:29 traded 14,850 shares as low as $1.89->$1.85 and began no/low-volume $1.85/6 trading, but for ~21K at 11:43 trading $1.85/8, ending the period at $1.85. 12:48-13:37 (no trades last two minutes) began with a two-minute ~6.1K drop to $1.83/4 and commenced no/low-volume trading in that range until 13:17 when a three-minute ~7K move to $1.81/2 occurred and ended the period at $1.81. 13:38-14:34 began with 27.8K trading $1.83->$1.77 (another all-time intra-day low) and commenced a no/low-volume $1.77/$1.80 trading with a falling range beginning at 14:01, interrupted by 8.6K $1.80->$1.76 (another all-time intra-day low) at 14:16, and ended the period at $1.80. 14:35-15:36 began with a two-minute 9.8K range of $1.79->1.81 and began no/low-volume $1.79/$1.80 trading, but for a 5K $1.79->$1.82 minute at 14:56, and ended the period at $1.79. 15:37-16:00 began with 3.6K doing $1.79-$1.83 and began low-volume $1.79/$1.82 trading with rising lows and finally flattened to trade $1.80 at 15:56 on low volume and closed the day with a 1,150 share sell at $1.80.
There was one AH sell of 188 shares for $1.75.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify) there were four larger trades (>=5K) totaling 22,295 shares, 7.68% of day's volume, with a $1.8494 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements of the open, low, high, close and volume were -3.05%, -7.37%, -5.37%, -7.69%, and 45.59% respectively vs. yesterday's -3.90%, -7.32%, 8.47%, 2.63%, and 3.00% respectively. In aggregate, worse than yesterday as only the magnitude of the first two were not worse than yesterday. The high and close movements were disappointing after yesterday's attempt to show some positive behavior. As mentioned elsewhere, the volume either completes or is starting to complete the "cupping" I wanted to see but with price going opposite to that for which I had hoped.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:56 14686 $1.9100 $1.9400 $28,079.83 $1.9120 5.06% 7.71% Incl 09:30 $1.9100 7,250
10:31 13333 $1.9000 $1.9400 $25,398.54 $1.9049 4.59% 23.47%
11:22 38452 $1.8500 $1.9000 $72,027.10 $1.8732 13.24% 36.43%
12:47 89110 $1.8500 $1.8900 $165,273.61 $1.8547 30.68% 32.37% Incl 11:43 $1.8510 5,000
13:35 22846 $1.8100 $1.8400 $41,687.63 $1.8247 7.87% 35.30% Incl 12:49 $1.8400 5,000
14:34 65141 $1.7600 $1.8300 $116,518.12 $1.7887 22.43% 37.22% Incl 14:04 $1.7702 5,045
15:36 29982 $1.7900 $1.8200 $53,928.13 $1.7987 10.32% 37.94%
16:00 13355 $1.7900 $1.8300 $24,058.78 $1.8015 4.60% 37.72%
17:50 188 $1.7500 $1.7500 $329.00 $1.7500 0.06% 37.69%
Yesterday I noted { Tomorrow being Friday may break the pattern though because Friday's are often when some exit to avoid being exposed to weekend exogenous events. }
Regardless of that, my optimism, which returned in the last couple of days, is back in the closet for now.
On my minimal chart we've got another short-term descending wedge. Let's hope the break is upward this time. I'm still holding to yesterday's { I'll wait for the trend of rising volume on rising prices to show more strongly before getting all giddy. } Today, of course, doesn't meet that criteria.
On my one-year chart, price, which had opened a small gap above the descending channel support line, moved right back to sit atop it again. So the price continues making a grind lower right on that support line.
The oscillators I watch, which had improved yesterday, all weakened and remain (deeper) in oversold and those without oversold markings remain way below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger Band is sinking it's mid-point towards price, as I feared might happen, rather than price rising to the mid-point.
All in, only the cupping volume offers any hope we may be near reversing this downward trend. If price had been up rather than down, it would be a bit more than hope. For now, still waiting.
Yesterday I said { I think today was the start of my flattish-to-rising pattern developing. But tomorrow is Friday, so maybe it's delayed? We'll see.
All in, I remain more optimistic right now. }
Well, that didn't work out well did it?
Yesterday I took heart from the buy percentage strength throughout the first half of the day and, I think, mistakenly read the excessive short percentage as an effect of this without considering that the intra-day behavior didn't offer a lot of attractive covering buy opportunities for the MMs. That suggests they weren't short-term long and had no reason to hold price up - in fact maybe just the opposite.
The easiest way to generate volume, which is how they make their money from fees from the exchanges, is to drive price down by naked shorting until volume comes in. If sellers come in, which is apparently what happened today, they get the fees and they get attractive covering buy prices appearing. They sold high (yesterday?) and then bought low (today?) just sitting on the falling bids, which means they got the fees for providing liquidity at the same time any short positions were getting covered.
Nice work if you can get it.
Opening low and just going more-or-less straight lower without the usual bump up first may support this scenario.
If this is what happened today we could see price held up tomorrow.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction again, which is hopeful as it suggests "normalcy". Unfortunately both are below what I think is needed to see price rise right now. Add in that our price spread remains wide and we are now again known in a down trend (another descending wedge) and prospects are not positive for now. The wedge is acute so it shouldn't take long to see which way we break.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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