This is starting to become a hardball game now, almost pure speculation. I suspect that the SGLB market will drive many more weak hands out completely, one last time, before an unexpected event turns this around hard, leaving the scared and cautious behind forever. It is essentially to the point where you are going to either be in or out, and what you have is what you have.
GE isn't using PR3D for production right now. They are constrained by the agreement to only use the IP for evaluation purposes. No PR has indicated that GE has placed an order for production floor PR3D units. GE printers are on the floor and likely ready to go. So it is to the point where the next chip to fall will either confirm GE will use PR3D, or they will not use PR3D to start production. The market consensus is that they will not use PR3D to start.
Honeywell likes PR3D and continues to state that they do. But to my knowledge there has been no indication about what Honeywell will actually be using it for. We do not hear of any printing production plans for Honeywell.
The many other irons in the fire with SGLB and the likes of Materialize and printer manufacturers and evaluators continue to not prominently, conclusively, showcase SGLB when the opportunity arises. No media text includes SGLB when the opportunity presents itself. The printer manufacturers are working toward their own IPQA solutions. Materialize at best presents its relationship with IPQA and SGLB as conflicted with its own joint relations with competitive IPQA efforts. The making of the sausage is a messy, messy thing. The S3 has people thinking Armageddon instead of a legitimate way to raise money for growth, and maybe won't even be needed; but certainly won't be used until the constraints are met, and can be used in much lesser amounts than full consumption of the remaining authorized count.
So the end result is that many do not believe in SGLB being successful. As much dot connecting can be made to point out how SGLB is being shunned as the IPQA choice, as can be made to point out how it will be the IPQA choice. The players are keeping things very opaque.
So it comes down to a simple coin toss; a 50/50 chance. Not good odds for near sighted, want returns right this very minute, investors. So the share price goes down in weakness. But we all have seen how the market has a way of weeding out the meek. I believe that very big news will come out of nowhere and catch many people flat-footed.
I expect to see lower prices and real pain yet, as the last chapter of the ground floor opportunity in SGLB gets read, and weeds out the chafe. It is happening now.
I'll race you for the .04s. There won't be many to be had.
All the best,
Silversmith
