Biotech Values

[ghmm]

Ocera 11/17/15 Stifel Healthcare Conference Notes

IV program
- Length of stay of HE patients important more than 60% in for > 5 days, hospitals make money by day 4.
- Hyperion Phase 2 ammonia scavenger (Ravicti - glycerol phenylbutyrate) stat sig at reducing future episodes, hospitalizations and severity. Good harbinger since contains same active ingredient. (Horizon decided to terminate program because of use in urea cycle disorder - much higher price)
- 80% power to see difference at study end that was seen at planned interim. Primary is time to meaningful clinical improvement in encephalopathy symptoms (Present as K-M curve with log rank analysis).
- If slide 18 accurately represents the powering then it looks like benefit is close to 40 hours!
- stratifying enrolled patients for West Haven Scale at entry, most are 2 or 3 expect very few 4's
- Standard of care may vary a little bit but not restricted in what is used.

Oral program
- Now deciding if moving forward with 1 or 2 (that look most promising of the 3) of the oral candidates to optimize and move forward with.
- Feel confidant have a BID formulation and possibly QD going forward
- Optimize formulation and repeat (phase 1) middle of next year.

- See IV as $500-600M opportunity, Oral as $800-900M opportunity (US only)
- COM patent 2030