Was going through my notes over the weekend and read my very first note on TWD IPO. I had followed the company before the reverse takeover that produced the IPO, and read as much as possible into the business plan and directors. The one major difference between my perspective of an Mmpr LP then and now , is simply the patient numbers and the new government.
The restricted patient numbers have stunted the MMPR, causing significantly lower than expected revenues. Yet CGC has not only kept ahead of competition in business growth, also patient numbers. The q2 will reveal more. The patient numbers alone have been the greatest speculative risk for this corporation. A slower than expected growth rate could be a significant reason for an investor to not have stayed invested in MMPR LP's.
With Legalization on the distant horizon, those numbers no longer matter, because one can assume easier access for recreational will also relax access for medical. BUT... There remains a risk of time. How long will the Canadian Government take to develop a recreational program and the first sale is made.
Ultra Conservative says is it doesn't happen because of unforeseen events [* whatever ones imagination can muster*. My guess would be some sort of NATO/ISIS-L war that occupies public attention]. Semi conservative guess says 1-4 years. For long investors, having x$ waiting for that first sale is a short wait. In the mean time, CGC must continue to grow the patient numbers and hit CF+. I certainly hope that with all or most of the cap ex out of the way, that CF+ is at best 1-2 quarters away. That way CGC can stand strong financially until the Canopy can once again expand, perhaps 100x into recreational.
With the way government bills and regulations can, at time be bogged down, the MMPR needs to stand alone.
My liberal guess says First RecMj sale in 1-2 years. Not to compare the new Liberal Majority Government culture to the previous Harper Conservatives, But with the way bill C-51 was rushed and pushed through the last parliament, with total disregard for opposition amendments and public sentiment, I can imagine that with such great public support for RecMJ and a Majority Government, this government really should not have any great resistance to reforming the CDSA. It's all up to how much will they have to get it done, and what timeline.
For long investing, I once heard " Don't fearfully uproot the seeds you so faithfully planted." That's what I saw reading my notes from 2014. For Day and Swing Trading , this industry is very easy to read. News , volume, public information are always in the forefront of every emerging industry.
"Where there's a will, there's always a way." - Robert Nesta Marley. 'Zion Train'
