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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 9 - 13
CommoditiesNov 08, 2015 08:37AM ET
© Reuters. Oil futures drop 5% on the week as strong dollar, supply glut weigh© Reuters. Oil futures drop 5% on the week as strong dollar, supply glut weigh
Investing.com - Oil prices fell to seven-day lows on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns over a global supply glut weighed.
On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for December delivery shed 56 cents, or 1.17%, to close the week at $47.42 a barrel after falling earlier to a session low of $47.27, the weakest level since October 28.
For the week, London-traded Brent futures dropped $2.08, or 4.32%, the third weekly loss over the past four.
The U.S. dollar rallied to seven-month highs against a basket of six other major currencies after data showing the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in October bolstered expectations for a rate hike next month.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs last month, the largest increase since December and easily surpassing expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate inched down to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008.
The dollar index was up 1.23% to 99.29 in late trade, the strongest level since April 15. The index ended the week with gains of 2.31%. Dollar-priced commodities become more expensive to investors holding other currencies when the greenback gains.
Market players have been trying to gauge when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade after recent economic reports offered a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.
The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in the markets in recent months.
Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December sank 91 cents, or 2.01%, to end Friday's session at $44.29 a barrel. It earlier dropped to $44.11, the lowest since October 28.
Nymex oil futures held on to losses after industry research group Baker Hughes (N:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. decreased by 6 last week to 572, the tenth straight weekly decline and the lowest level since June 2010.
Over the prior ten weeks, drillers in the U.S. have cut 103 rigs. A lower U.S. rig count is usually a bullish sign for oil as it signals potentially lower production in the future.
On the week, New York-traded oil futures lost $2.14, or 4.94%, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. rose for the sixth consecutive week, remaining near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
The oil market has been volatile in recent months amid uncertainty about how quickly the global glut of crude is set to shrink.
Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.
Despite the tighter outlook for North America, output remains robust in other countries. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC members have indicated they will continue to stick to their policy of defending market share by keeping production high.
Oil prices have lost nearly 60% since last summer as lingering concerns over a glut in world markets drove down prices.
Meanwhile, the spread between the Brent and the WTI crude contracts stood at $3.13 a barrel by close of trade on Friday compared to $2.78 by close of trade on Thursday.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. data on retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike.
Tuesday’s inflation figures from China will also be in focus, along with Friday’s preliminary data on economic growth in the euro area.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, November 9
The Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.
Tuesday, November 10
China is to produce data on inflation, with reports on both the consumer and producer price indices.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on oil supplies.
Wednesday, November 11
China is to publish data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.
Later in the day, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in London.
Thursday, November 12
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.
The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims, as well as a weekly government report on crude oil inventories. The supply data comes out one day later than usual due to Wednesday's Veterans Day's holiday in the U.S.
Friday, November 13
The euro zone and Germany are to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth.
The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment.
Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: November 9 - 13
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