Wow what a week!! How's everyone doing? Long time since I've said much, sorry been quite busy with life and whatnot this summer and fall.
Earnings on a technical overbought scenario leaves lots of room to fall after the 10Q. We always think it's going to the moon when it's running and after it's over you say "why didn't I sell?"? Well this is still pretty cheap. Nelson has shown this can be done. The GM decreased slightly to 27%, and still knocked out 1.4m net profit. Not bad....not bad at all. This is a technical selloff and I predict it will be followed by fundamental buying, and lots of it.
Keep in mind, this was trading in the 2$ range a little more than a week ago. Clearly there's going to be profit takers when traders reach 100% profits. Overbought at 100% profit levels with a fabulous ER, I'm not surprised at all on the drop. However it sure is a buying opportunity, I know I took advantage of it.
There's so much to look forward to now that we've solidified the fact that profits can be made in this environment, that cash doesn't need to be burnt to pay the staff and keep the lights on. So don't panic about a little post ER drop.
The market has just been a bear lately (nice pun eh?). Seems like everywhere you look, companies making their targets get burned and companies missing are being rewarded. Companies that miss big are being slaughtered. Some are being slaughtered on nothing at all. The last few years have been extremely bullish and now you have Chanos and the likes bashing and trashing and taking profits and shorting. So all this and I see traders being picky and taking small gains quickly. People are unwilling to let it ride, burning the mid term investors.
With Elite closing by Dec 1, we're knocking out ~20 mil per Q right now, and they could add significant revenue next year. Remember long ago when there was talk of 100mil annual revs? Now we are 5mil away from a 100 mil annual run rate. Q4 could easily hit that mark, which means if they keep pace in 2016 we'll see that 100mil revenue realized. There is talk of a residential solar boom next year to beat the "possible" expiration of the ITC tax credits.
Meanwhile, people are still unaware of this company. This is the first profitable Q here. We've got a couple institutions with PT's and presumably more are on the way. We've got those 2020 warrants out there (SLTWW) dirt...dirty dirt cheap right now. We've got the company focusing on the agri business which seems to be pretty unique in the solar space. Residential is a smaller portion of the business which means the potential ITC expiration means a lot less here than other larger solars, so we could feel the effects of the boom in 2016 without the pain afterwards if indeed the ITC goes away.
This is such a unique company...but nobody gets it. Yet...
That ST site is so absurd. The traders on there will say anything. Remember back in the day here when there were like 60 followers on this site and ST didn't exist? We had the likes of a few bashers that would show up on cue when the price took off. Same thing over there only x100. Pumpers and dumpers. Shorts and distorts. So much noise it's deafening. Part of the reason I post less these days is the amount of nonsense. The Neeson thing just drove me away. I still don't know if that was just some silly viral phenomenon based on the Neeson picture here on the hub, or a concerted effort by someone to make that site useless for anyone looking for legitimate information.
I had a few other conspiracy points and long stretch items to touch on as well. Could the Elite close have been pushed on purpose, due to the overbought and conditions to let the chart cool off after this run? (I know likely not the case but an interesting thought). When Sunworks closed we had a ER and "acquisition close" around the same time and it didn't end well for the PPS. Maybe they are giving the ticker some breathing room.
Also, we shouldn't discount the long term here vs other solars based on our lack of leasing. We know leasing was a great thing to get solar out there during its infancy- reduce costs etc, but the long term leasing model loses to system sales. IF (not when still) ITC expires we know lease based solars will take a huge hit. They lose big time, leaving us the shining star of the industry. By that time, much larger, much safer, much more recognized on the street. We'll be the NEW major player who will 100% be working with Tesla batteries (didn't Jackson Family wines use SUNworks and Tesla batteries?). Not to mention the cost reduction with the new companies racking systems and likely at some point a deal with some inverter company or yet to be heard of technology that leaves inverters behind. I read somewhere that new homes are being built with low voltage infrastructure to accommodate all the low voltage LED lighting, as well as the low voltage Solar and battery systems...makes sense, further reducing the system size needed, putting more systems in that "size" sweet spot that we like.
This isn't 10 years off people, this is 2-4. I'm still here, I'm still long, I'm still too busy to write all the time.
Long
