Biotech Values

[iwfal]

TRVN

Have you looked at Trevena's Acute Heart Failure treatment TRV027? Its still early, but they claim it is potentially the first new treatment for ACH in decades.

As I've noted before, AHF is an extremely heterogeneous disease. See, for example, this paper.. Some patients have low blood pressure, some high. Some have low cardiac index, some normal, ... . Even dyspnia isn't universal. So it is unlikely that any drug will treat anywhere near all patients. And it is almost certain that TRVN knows this (in their R&D Day slides they referenced getting the right phenotype as important), and given their recent trial size expansion I think they know this will take some data mining.

So... I'd be very surprised if they had more than a few positive subgroups coming out of this ph2. How the market will treat that is, I'd suggest, a function of the current biotech market psych.

Note that, FWIW, I think TRVN did a very good job in their recent R&D Day presentation (I'll write up some notes later), but the path forward for TRV027 will, IMO, likely be slow (e.g. they'll need a confirmatory trial or two to check the subgroups found in the first phase 2) and risky because of the heterogeneous nature of AHF.