Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[eastcoastguy]

Good call 101. If my memory serves me Dart held over 9M shares going back to 2010 or so. Also I believe Dart's cost average was in the 1.60's.

Being a large friendly I'm sure if Dart wanted to keep up with the dilution that has taken place over the last few years SK takes his call and they arrange a deal good for both. I think this puts Dart at around 28M and around 10% of the OS when you include what's reserved for options, employees, warrants and the likely conversion factor for the Series E Preferred. My back of the envelope math with what's reserved is around 280M shares.

Dart now has approximately 35M invested for 28M shares at what now is around a 1.25/share average. I suspect this is a timely buy by Dart. He maintains his percentage of PPHM and cost averages down while he's at it. Even though he's a billionaire I'm sure he wouldn't throw another 20M at his PPHM holding if he didn't see the promise of Sunrise.

Bottom line for PPHM is we need the $ to prove out the trials and produce the data. Without the data Wall St will not buy the "story" or the stock. This is an all or nothing plan by our team. Avid gives us a little cushion but really it's Bavi and the anti-PS technology.

Though many here think we zoom when it's announced we have fully enrolled Sunrise I take a more conservative view and expect a bump into the 1.75-2 range. We have a big float so the moves will be more modest until we have some exciting data. Now if Sunrise is halted in mid to late 2016 for compelling efficacy then we go to 4-5 or a MC between 1-1.5B. From there any kind of money deal/partner we move to the 7.50-10 territory. I hope those more optimistic in timing and price are right and my more muted expectations prove to be too conservative.

By this time next year things will hopefully look much different.

Pats fan