SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Oddlot]

Update: cyclic obj 206.50-207.00 SPY

One of the cyclic methods for determining targets is the fact that for a given wavelength, a centered moving average (cma) of the data in the wavelength will intersect a similar cma for half the length of the wave, and that intersection will occur at a price midway through the move. The problem is that the actual cycle lengths vary randomly around a central point and thus the crossing can occur before or after the actual top occurs. But the calculated top is eerily close to the actual which is seen.

Using intraday cma for accuracy and timeliness, the 21day crossed the 10.5day at approx 196.8. If a normalized low is used (a complicated discussion re compensating for abnormal noise), the swing would be 9.70-10.50 from the crossing. Hence a target of 206.5-207.0.

There is a disconnect in the argument, in that a 21day cycle is assumed based on past history, and this day is day17 of the cycle which appeared to present the third 5day low yesterday and confirm the next nested lows to be due nominally 10/28. Apparent strength and new highs when weakness is necessary for the cycle to play out gives the basis of the disconnect. Reasonable targets that are unreasonable together: high of 207 and low 193-196 in a nominal 5day (or slightly longer) period.

I am on the sidelines and befuddled.

Oddlot